497
FXUS63 KOAX 040545
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1145 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE (15-25% CHANCE)
WEDNESDAY MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. SNOW
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 0.50" WITH A GLAZE OF ICE
POSSIBLE.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S, THOUGH A FEW SPOTS MAY
HIT THE 60S.
- THE PROLONGED STRETCH OF WARMER WEATHER WILL INCREASE THE RISK
FOR RIVER ICE BREAKUP AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 153 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON DEPICT
BROAD MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE CONUS, WHILE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.
WITH A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST,
VERY LIGHT AND PATCHY FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE REMAIN POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE-80
CORRIDOR, WITH POPS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15% RANGE. LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY AND A MODESTLY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER SHOULD KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION LIGHT ENOUGH TO AVOID MEANINGFUL IMPACTS.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING
INTO THE FRONT RANGE, WHICH WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW A NARROW SWATCH OF VORTICITY TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING, BRINGING THE NEXT
OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST ORIENTED BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH POPS PEAKING IN THE
15-25% RANGE DUE TO THE LOW QPF AND SPOTTY COVERAGE OF EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INITIALLY SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW BEFORE SATURATION ALOFT DECREASES,
TRANSITIONING PROFILES TOWARD LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE LOWEST 1-
2 KM REMAIN SATURATED. THE PRECIPITATION BAND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH QUICKLY AND REMAIN SPOTTY IN NATURE, WITH SNOWFALL TOTALS
LIKELY REMAINING UNDER ONE-HALF INCH AND ONLY A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE
POSSIBLE. DESPITE THE MINIMAL EXPECTED ACCUMULATIONS, LOCALIZED
SLICK SPOTS MAY DEVELOP, PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS THE BAND SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN. ANY
LINGERING SNOW OR ICE SHOULD DIMINISH RELATIVELY QUICKLY THROUGH THE
DAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS FORECAST TO REACH THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND...
FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. THURSDAY IS EXPECTED
TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 50S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AND THE LOW 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST-
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE WARM AFTERNOON WILL BE COUPLED WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH. AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL REMAIN DRY. THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL
DROP HIGHS INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ON FRIDAY, STILL WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE. ENHANCED CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20-30+ MPH THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MILD, GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID
50S, WHICH IS APPROXIMATELY 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES. THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS AS THE PROLONGED WARMER TEMPERATURES PROMOTE
CONTINUED WEAKENING AND BREAKUP OF RIVER ICE ACROSS THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DISPLACES THE RIDGE PATTERN. LONG-
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN CHANGE, RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION DURING THIS EXTENDED
TIMEFRAME. REGARDLESS, THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST. THE CPC'S 6-10 DAY AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A 60-80% PROBABILITY OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AT
THE TERMINALS. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER A BIT HEADING INTO
DAYBREAK AS SOME WEAK SHOWERS OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE MOVES IN
SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK. FOR KOFK, THE BEST CHANCE FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE WOULD BE BETWEEN 11-16Z, KOMA BETWEEN 13-16Z AND KLNK
BETWEEN 11-17Z. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HEADING
INTO LATE MORNING, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT, WITH CEILINGS
IMPROVING TO VFR BY 19Z AT KOFK AND 21Z AT KOMA/KLNK.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOOD
AVIATION...ANW
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