215
FXUS63 KOAX 040906
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
306 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SLICK ROADS NEAR AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. SNOW TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNDER 0.5" WITH A GLAZE OF ICE.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. A FEW SPOTS COULD HIT THE
60S THURSDAY, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD 60S FOR MONDAY.
- THE PROLONGED STRETCH OF WARMER WEATHER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
RIVER ICE BREAKUP AND INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWED THE WELL-ADVERTISED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH LIGHT RADAR RETURNS STARTING
TO EDGE INTO NORTHEAST NE AS OF 3 AM. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW AS PRECIP FIRST
STARTS, BUT WE QUICKLY LOSE SATURATION ALOFT AND THEREFORE, IN-
CLOUD ICE, INDICATING A TRANSITION TO FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH THE
LOWEST 1-2 KM REMAINING SATURATED. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SEEM TO
SUPPORT THIS WITH A FEW LIGHT SNOW REPORTS AND SEVERAL OTHER
MIST/FOG/UNKNOWN PRECIP REPORTS WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY AND EVEN
SOME ICE ACCUMULATION. WHILE VARIOUS PIECES OF SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY IN THEIR SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
AND QPF FIELDS (HRRR/RAP HAVE BEEN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE), NEARLY
ALL OF THEM SHOW THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL SATURATION (SOME
MORE CONSISTENT THAN OTHERS) WITH SOME DECENT LIFT, SO THEY ALL
SEEM TO SHOW AT LEAST POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE.
ONE THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
SOME LOCATIONS (E.G. NORFOLK, ALBION, COLUMBUS, NELIGH) HAVE
REMAINED NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING WITH THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
KEEPING US A BIT WARMER. AS A RESULT, ICE ACCUMULATION MAY
REMAIN CONFINED TO ELEVATED AND UNTREATED SURFACES IN SOME
LOCATIONS, THOUGH THEY SHOULD COOL OFF A FEW DEGREES AS PRECIP
STARTS. PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
MORNING, LARGELY REMAINING NORTH OF I-80 THROUGH 8 AM AND THEN
PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME
CONSIDERATION WAS GIVEN TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, BUT GIVEN
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TEMPERATURE, LOW LEVEL SATURATION
QUESTIONS (I.E. POTENTIAL PATCHINESS OF THE ICING), AND ICE
ACCUMULATIONS REMAINING AROUND 0.01-0.02" ELECTED TO HOLD OFF
FOR NOW. REGARDLESS, THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME SLICK SPOTS OUT
THERE THIS MORNING. ONCE PRECIP DOES EXIT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S, THOUGH LINGERING CLOUDS COULD KEEP A FEW PLACES A
LITTLE COOLER.
FOR THURSDAY, WE'LL WARM UP SIGNIFICANTLY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL START TO EDGE EASTWARD INTO
THE AREA WITH SURFACE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
HELPING TO GET TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AND EVEN A FEW
LOWER 60S EDGING INTO FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WON'T FALL TOO MUCH, WITH FRIDAY HIGHS IN THE MID
40S TO MID 50S. WE'LL STAY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S AND MONDAY EVEN
TRENDING TOWARD MORE WIDESPREAD 60S. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO RIVER ICE MELTING AND BREAKING UP,
INCREASING OUR RISK OF ICE JAMS. IN ADDITION, SEVERAL OF THESE
DAYS COULD BE A LITTLE BREEZY, WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH, SO MAY
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY INCREASED FIRE
DANGER IF WE STAY DRY, THOUGH NO ONE DAY LOOKS PARTICULARLY
CONCERNING AT THIS POINT, AS RH VALUES SHOULD STAY ABOVE 30-40%.
GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS OUR NEXT
PRECIP CHANCES WITH THE RIDGE FLATTENING OUT AND SOME MORE
SHORTWAVES SLIDING THROUGH. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS LOTS OF
SPREAD IN GUIDANCE ON TIMING AND TRACK OF THESE SYSTEMS SO
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW, WITH CONSENSUS SAYING WEDNESDAY
CURRENTLY HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCES (20-30%).
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AT
THE TERMINALS. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER A BIT HEADING INTO
DAYBREAK AS SOME WEAK SHOWERS OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE MOVES IN
SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK. FOR KOFK, THE BEST CHANCE FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE WOULD BE BETWEEN 11-16Z, KOMA BETWEEN 13-16Z AND KLNK
BETWEEN 11-17Z. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HEADING
INTO LATE MORNING, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT, WITH CEILINGS
IMPROVING TO VFR BY 19Z AT KOFK AND 21Z AT KOMA/KLNK.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...ANW
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