601
FXUS63 KOAX 042004
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
204 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FLURRIES/DRIZZLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST
IOWA WILL COME TO AN END BY THIS EVENING.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. A FEW
SPOTS COULD HIT THE 60S THURSDAY, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD 60S
SUNDAY-MONDAY.
- THE PROLONGED STRETCH OF WARMER WEATHER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
RIVER ICE BREAKUP AND INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 204 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
CLOUDS HANG OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL. TEMPERATURES AS OF
1 PM ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S AND ARE FORECAST
TO REACH INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 THIS AFTERNOON. OUR LAST
CHANCE FOR ANY TYPE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEEK MOVED THROUGH
THIS MORNING, BRINGING FLURRIES/FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS IS
CLEARING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD BE COMPLETELY WRAPPED UP BY
5PM THIS EVENING.
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WILL SEE A BROAD
RIDGE, CURRENTLY BRINGING RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE
WESTERN CONUS EXPAND EASTWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO A TRANSITION
TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. GOING INTO THURSDAY WE SEE A SHORTWAVE BRING A PUSH OF
NORTHERLY WINDS INTO THE AREA DURING THE MORNING WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS AIR IS NOT
GOING TO BE CHILLY AS EXPECTED, THOUGH, SOURCING FROM WESTERN
CANADA WHERE STRONG RIDGING HAS BROUGHT UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES TO ALBERTA AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS COMBINED WITH
THE RIDGE BUILDING IN INCREASING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS ACROSS
THE REGION ON THURSDAY WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO WARM WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. WE'LL SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN IOWA, SOME SPOTS MAY EVEN WARM INTO THE LOW 60S IN OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES.
FRIDAY WE SEE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRAVEL ALONG THE UPPER-LEVEL
JET TO OUR EAST WHICH WILL BRING BACK A PERIOD OF BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS FRIDAY MORNING. THIS AIR MASS SOURCES A LITTLE
FARTHER EAST, PULLING IN SOME OF THE COOLER AIR OVER
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. THIS MEANS TEMPERATURES COOL BACK
DOWN A BIT, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF CLIPPER SHORTWAVES MOVES IN EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGING A SHIFT BACK TO SOUTHERLY WINDS. THIS WIND
SHIFT MAY NOT LAST LONG ENOUGH TO IMPACT TEMPERATURES MUCH, BUT
SOME AREAS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA MAY WARM INTO THE LOW-TO-MID
50S WHILE THE REST OF OUR AREA STAYS IN THE 40S SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WE SEE THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND BREAK DOWN, BRINGING AN END TO THE
CLIPPER SYSTEMS OUT OF CANADA AND BRINGING IN SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ENSEMBLES SHOW FAIRLY
GOOD CONFIDENCE (60-70% CHANCE) IN HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 60S
FOR HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 81. MONDAY
THIS POTENTIAL EXPANDS EASTWARD WITH A 60-80+% CHANCE FOR HIGHS
AT OR ABOVE 60. WE MAY NOT BE TALKING RECORD HIGHS JUST YET AS
RECORDS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY GENERALLY ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
70, BUT IT WILL CERTAINLY BE WELL ABOVE OUR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE
MID 30S.
AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
NEXT WEEK, WE'LL SEE TEMPERATURES START TO COOL BACK DOWN
TOWARD NORMAL. WITH THIS RIDGE GOING AWAY WE SEE A MAJOR PATTERN
CHANGE AWAY FROM THE WESTERN RIDGE EASTERN TROUGH REGIME THAT
HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR THE LAST FEW WEEKS. INSTEAD, WE SEE A
BROAD TROUGH MOVE ONTO THE WEST COAST FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA
SHIFTING FLOW TO SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS
SHOULD MEAN A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN
RETURNING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY, BUT MORE LIKELY DURING THE
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIME FRAME. WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE, I'D EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO STAY AS RAIN AT LEAST
INITIALLY UNTIL ANY OF THE TRAILING SYSTEMS IS ACTUALLY ABLE TO
PULL COLDER AIR SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THIS DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY
THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
THE -SN/FZDZ IS GRADUALLY CLEARING UP WITH MVFR CIGS HANGING
OVER THE TERMINALS. WE'LL SEE THESE LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH MUCH
OF THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING EXPECTED BETWEEN 22-00Z THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WE'LL SEE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE BACK
IN WITH WINDS SHIFTING BACK TO SOUTHERLY. WINDS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE WILL START SHIFTING BACK TO NORTHWESTERLY THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE WE SEE THIS REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO LLWS WITH WINDS AROUND FL015 BECOMING WESTERLY UP TO 40
KT STARTING AROUND 09-11Z, AND BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 40
KT AROUND 11-13Z. EXPECT STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING WITH SURFACE WINDS STAYING
MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AROUND 08-10KT. LLWS
SHOULD BE RESOLVING WITH SURFACE WINDS PICKING UP OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AROUND 16-18Z THURSDAY.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...MCCOY
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