151
FXUS63 KOAX 051651
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1051 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. A FEW SPOTS COULD
HIT THE 60S TODAY, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD 60S SUNDAY-MONDAY.
- THE PROLONGED STRETCH OF WARMER WEATHER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
RIVER ICE BREAKUP AND INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS. A
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PLATTE, ELKHORN, AND LOUP
RIVERS.
- MORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE FAVORED FOR THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE COUNTRY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT STILL LOTS OF
QUESTIONS ON TIMING, STRENGTH, AND EXACT TRACKS OF THE
VARIOUS SYSTEMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
PRETTY QUIET ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A WARM
FRONT RUNNING FROM ROUGHLY O'NEILL THROUGH KEARNEY AS OF 3 AM
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS STARTING TO EDGE
EASTWARD. THE FRONT AND CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD THIS
MORNING, MOSTLY CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND NOON WITH
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW (GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH)
HELPING US WARM SIGNIFICANTLY COMPARED TO WHERE WE WERE. EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH A FEW SPOTS
NEARING 60 AS YOU GO WEST. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
THROUGH ON FRIDAY MORNING AND COOL US DOWN A BIT, BUT STILL
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. ALSO EXPECT SOME GUSTY
WINDS (20-30+ MPH) AS IT PASSES THROUGH WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATING 30 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER IN MANY
LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION, SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WE COULD
SEE SOME SPOTTY SPRINKLES, WITH A DECENTLY DEEP SATURATED LAYER
AND WEAK INSTABILITY. CORRESPONDING SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
FIELDS ALSO SHOW SOME WEAK RETURNS, BUT LITTLE TO NO QPF, SO
AGAIN, WOULDN'T EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES IF ANYTHING AT
ALL (10% CHANCE).
FOR THE WEEKEND, STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST. AS A
RESULT, WE SHOULD SEE DECENT MIXING WITH GUSTS OF 20-30+ MPH
AGAIN, THOUGH GIVEN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION, THINK WE'LL SEE AT
LEAST A LITTLE CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL KEEP THINGS FROM REALLY
MIXING OUT AND GETTING WARM AND WINDY. STILL, EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER AND LESS WINDY AS
THE SURFACE LOW PASSES TO OUR EAST AND WESTERLY FLOW HELPS USHER
IN 50S TO LOWER 60S AGAIN. STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW AND THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ARRIVE ON MONDAY, HELPING US TO WARM EVEN
FURTHER, WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 60S AND MODEL CONSENSUS
GIVING SOME LOCATIONS A 30-50% CHANCE OF HITTING 70 DEGREES. SO
WITH ALL THIS WARM WEATHER, WE'RE EXPECTING RIVER ICE TO BREAK
UP AND MOVE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND INCREASE THE RISK OF
ICE JAMS. THEREFORE, WE HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
PLATTE, ELKHORN, AND LOUP RIVERS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
THE RIDGE THEN STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
SETTING UP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, SO WE'LL BE A BIT COOLER FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK (40S AND 50S). WITH THE TROUGH TO OUR
WEST, WE ALSO LOOK LIKE WE'LL BE IN A LITTLE BIT MORE OF AN
ACTIVE PATTERN, WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVES RIPPLING THROUGH. STILL
LOTS OF SPREAD IN STRENGTH, TIMING, AND TRACK OF THESE VARIOUS
SYSTEMS WHICH WILL OBVIOUSLY IMPACT PRECIP AMOUNTS AND TYPES.
FOR NOW, PRECIP CHANCES START TO RAMP UP BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH
A STANDING 20-40% CHANCE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE
YOU'LL PROBABLY SEE SOME MODEL SNOWFALL MAPS PAINTING HUGE SNOW
TOTALS ACROSS OUR AREA NEXT WEEK, KNOW THAT MANY MORE MODELS
KEEP US COMPLETELY SNOW-FREE THROUGH FRIDAY (ABOUT 50-75% OF
GEFS/EPS/GEPS MEMBERS TO BE EXACT). SO BOTTOM LINE, WE'LL LIKELY
SEE SOME PRECIP AT TIMES NEXT WEEK, BUT STILL LOTS OF DETAILS
TO BE WORKED OUT, SO KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1047 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
PERIOD. MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS EXPECTED
BEFORE GRADUALLY CALMING UNDER 12 KTS AFTER 05/22Z TO 06/00Z.
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT ALL TERMINALS BY
06/05-07Z AS WINDS INCREASE TO 45-50 KTS AROUND FL015. A DECK OF
MVFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO PUSH INTO FROM NORTH-TO-SOUTH FRIDAY
MORNING, WITH IMPACTS MOST LIKELY AT KOFK AND KOMA. PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND/OR SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE LOWER
CLOUDS (15% CHANCE). LLWS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY LATE
MORNING, WITH NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AGAIN INCREASING ABOVE
12 KTS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR NEZ016-017-031>033-
042>045-050>053-067.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...WOOD
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