055
FXUS63 KOAX 051942
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
142 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH A FEW
SPOTS REACHING THE 60S TODAY AND MORE WIDESPREAD 60S SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.
- ONGOING WARMTH INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER ICE BREAKUP
AND ICE JAMS. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PLATTE,
ELKHORN, AND LOUP RIVERS.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE BY MIDWEEK, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS IN TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 141 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...
A MILD AND PLEASANT AFTERNOON IS UNDERWAY AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
INITIATING A PROLONGED STRETCH OF ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. A WARM
FRONT MOVED EAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLIER TODAY, RESULTING IN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID
50S TO LOW 60S, ROUGHLY 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. THE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT NORFOLK OF 61 DEGREES, SET IN 2005, WILL
LIKELY BE CHALLENGED THIS AFTERNOON.
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE SLIDING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LARGELY DRY, HOWEVER, MODEL
SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT A NARROW SATURATED LAYER WITHIN THE LOWEST 1 KM
WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE OR A FEW SPRINKLES, WITH
POPS IN THE 10-15% RANGE. THIS SATURATED LAYER GRADUALLY NARROWS
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, RESULTING IN A DIMINISHING BAND OF LIGHT POPS
AS IT MOVES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT, NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE, WITH GUSTS OF 20-30+ MPH
EXPECTED. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. WHILE
COOLER THAN TODAY, THESE VALUES WILL STILL REMAIN 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR ICE JAMS, AS CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES PROMOTE RIVER ICE
BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT. THIS RAISES THE RISK FOR ICE TO BECOME JAMMED
AND CAUSE SUDDEN RISES IN WATER LEVELS. AS A RESULT, A FLOOD WATCH
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE PLATTE,
ELKHORN, AND LOUP RIVERS. RIVER GAUGES AND REPORTS WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
SATURDAY AND BEYOND...
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN POSITIONED OVER THE
PERMIAN BASIN/LOWER FRONT RANGE ON SATURDAY, THOUGH ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE TRACKING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL PUSH A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY. SIMILAR TO FRIDAY,
THIS SETUP WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S,
WHICH IS STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT BACK TO SOUTHERLY, WITH A BREEZY AFTERNOON OF 20-30
MPH GUSTS.
A RENEWED WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FURTHER INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S, WITH
MONDAY PEAKING IN THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND POTENTIALLY THE
LOWER 70S (40-60% PROBABILITY, PER THE NBM) ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST-
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE FIRST IN A TRAIN OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
WILL NUDGE HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S ON TUESDAY.
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK, A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND INTRODUCE
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 40S, WITH POPS RANGING FROM 20-
40%. DESPITE PERSISTENT POPS FROM TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY, DRY
PERIODS ARE EXPECTED TO OUTWEIGH WET ONES. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL
REQUIRE CLOSE MONITORING AS OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE 20S TO LOW
30S. CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS LOW
DUE TO VARIABILITY AMONG LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE. CURRENT ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST MOST EPS/EPS-AIFS MEMBERS FAVOR PREDOMINANTLY
RAIN, WITH APPROXIMATELY ONE-THIRD OF GEFS MEMBERS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1047 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
PERIOD. MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS EXPECTED
BEFORE GRADUALLY CALMING UNDER 12 KTS AFTER 05/22Z TO 06/00Z.
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT ALL TERMINALS BY
06/05-07Z AS WINDS INCREASE TO 45-50 KTS AROUND FL015. A DECK OF
MVFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO PUSH INTO FROM NORTH-TO-SOUTH FRIDAY
MORNING, WITH IMPACTS MOST LIKELY AT KOFK AND KOMA. PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND/OR SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE LOWER
CLOUDS (15% CHANCE). LLWS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY LATE
MORNING, WITH NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AGAIN INCREASING ABOVE
12 KTS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR NEZ016-017-031>033-
042>045-050>053-067.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOOD
AVIATION...WOOD
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