631
FXUS63 KOAX 060855
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
255 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER, BUT ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY,
WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 40S.
- A GRADUAL WARM UP BEGINS SATURDAY, CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY,
WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 60S MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
THE FORECAST PERIOD STARTS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES, AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC, AND NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS. AFTER A VERY PLEASANT, GORGEOUS AFTERNOON YESTERDAY,
LOWS HAVE REMAINED IN THE MID-30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING.
A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND
WILL PUSH SOUTH AS WE HEAD FURTHER INTO THE MORNING HOURS. SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES THIS
MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN TODAY, WITH HIGHS
PRIMARILY IN THE 40S. WHILE THIS WILL BE A CONSIDERABLE CHANGE
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY'S 60S AND LOW 70S, WE WILL REMAIN WITH ABOVE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS AND THE LOW TO MID-TEENS FOR LOWS. WIND GUSTS
BEHIND THE FRONT MAY APPROACH 30MPH IN SPOTS, PUTTING OUR WIND CHILL
VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE
FROM COLUMBUS TO NEBRASKA CITY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SLIP
SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THE SECOND FROPA. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE COOLER, RANGING FROM THE MID-TEENS TO LOW 20S IN IOWA AND
THE LOW TO MID-20S IN NEBRASKA.
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY, THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OF
THE ROCKIES, OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. BY SATURDAY MORNING, THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL BE INCHING INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. 850MB TEMPS ARE SHOWING A SHIFTING OF THE COOLER AIR TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION. EXPECT MILD WEATHER WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE
40S AND 50S.
HEADING INTO SUNDAY, WE SEE A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN, BRINGING A FEW
SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE REGION AS SPLIT FLOW SHIFTS EAST. THE
NORTHERN SPLIT BRINGS A RIDGE OVER THE DAKOTAS AND MONTANA, WITH THE
SOUTHERN SPLIT PUTTING A TROUGH OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. A SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION HEADING INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. THE WARM
WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.
COOLER AIR PUSHES IN ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER SHIFT TO THE PATTERN.
ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL BE COOLER (40S) WE WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES (20%) RETURN TO THE FORECAST
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WEST WINDS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE
REGION AT THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE AREA.
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS AND LLWS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
LLWS AND NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, STRONGER NORTH WINDS AND
MVFR CEILINGS ARRIVE BEHIND THE MAIN COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 25 TO 30 KTS ARE LIKELY BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO LAST SEVERAL HOURS, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN DURATION DECREASES WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN MVFR CEILINGS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AT
OFK WITH DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN MORE THAN A COUPLE HOURS OF
MVFR CEILINGS AT OMA AND LNK. VFR CONDITIONS AND WEAKENING
NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR NEZ016-017-031>033-
042>045-050>053-067.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...CHEHAK
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