425
FXUS63 KOAX 061910
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
110 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
50S TODAY AND SATURDAY, WARMING INTO THE 50S AND 60S SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
- ONGOING WARMTH INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER ICE BREAKUP
AND ICE JAMS. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PLATTE,
ELKHORN, AND LOUP RIVERS.
- PERIODIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES (15-30%) RETURN TUESDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 105 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON DEPICT A
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS INCHING INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS. A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING USHERED IN A
BRIEF ROUND OF CAA, HOLDING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW
50S. WHILE THIS IS ROUGHLY 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY,
TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS FOR
EARLY FEBRUARY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE PIVOTING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST WILL DRIVE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS FRONT,
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY, WITH GUSTS
INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY, GENERALLY IN
THE 40S, WITH THE LOW 50S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST-
CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR ICE JAMS AS CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES PROMOTE RIVER ICE
BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT. THIS INCREASES THE RISK FOR ICE TO BECOME
LODGED AND CAUSE SUDDEN RISES IN WATER LEVELS. ACCORDINGLY, A FLOOD
WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE PLATTE,
ELKHORN, AND LOUP RIVERS. RIVER GAUGES AND OBSERVATIONAL REPORTS
WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND...
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK, THOUGH IT WILL GRADUALLY DAMPEN WITH
TIME. ASSOCIATED WAA WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WARMING,
WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S AND LOW 60S. MONDAY
APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD, WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS
IN THE 60S. PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA MAY APPROACH 70
DEGREES, WITH A 50% PROBABILITY PER THE NBM.
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL ARRIVE ON
TUESDAY, PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AND NUDGING HIGHS
BACK INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S. THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WILL
FEATURE GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PUNCTUATED BY ADDITIONAL PASSING
DISTURBANCES, RESULTING IN HIGHS LARGELY IN THE 40S. THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL ALSO BRING THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION,
WITH 15-30% POPS RETURNING TUESDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY. DESPITE THE EXTENDED STRETCH OF POPS, DRY PERIODS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MORE COMMON THAN WET ONES. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY IN THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES, WITH LOW RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY. HOWEVER, ONE CONSISTENT SIGNAL IS LIMITED AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. THE 50TH PERCENTILE OF TOTAL QPF FROM BOTH THE GEFS AND
EPS/EPS-AIFS REMAIN UNDER 0.05" THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH ONLY A 10-
20% PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 0.10".
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL ALSO REQUIRE MONITORING, AS OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 20S FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. BOTH GEFS AND
EPS/EPS-AIFDS KEEP THE BETTER MOISTURE AND SNOWFALL POTENTIAL NORTH
OF THE AREA, WITH A 10-20% PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST ONE INCH OF SNOW
CURRENTLY CONFINED TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. GIVEN THESE FACTORS,
CONFIDENCE IN BOTH PRECIPITATION TIMING AND TYPE REMAIN LOW IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. DETAILS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE REFINED AS
LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE CONVERGES ON THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THESE
DISTURBANCES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1034 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
A BROKEN TO SCATTERED DECK OF MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUES ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP AND
IMPROVE INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS BY 06/18-21Z. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE GUSTING UP TO 25-30 KTS BEFORE GRADUALLY CALMING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP UNDER 12 KTS BY
07/00Z BEFORE GRADUALLY VEERING TO SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR NEZ016-017-031>033-
042>045-050>053-067.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOOD
AVIATION...WOOD
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