681
FXUS63 KOAX 071653
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1053 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE TREND OF WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY, BRINGING CONCERNS FOR ICE JAMS AS RIVER ICE BREAKS UP.
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG THE LOUP,
ELKHORN AND PLATTE RIVERS IN EASTERN NEBRASKA.
- ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST, REACHING AT LEAST THE 40S FOR HIGHS EVERY DAY.
MONDAY REMAINS THE WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S.
- PERIODIC CHANCES (20-30%) FOR PRECIPITATION RETURN TO THE
FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 216 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
THE FORECAST PERIOD STARTS WITH A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. THROUGH THE DAY,
THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE OMAHA CWA, DEAMPLIFYING AS IT
PROGRESSES. ALTHOUGH STILL ON THE COOLER SIDE COMPARED TO A COUPLE
OF DAYS AGO, HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S ARE ABOVE SEASONAL
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE A TAD BREEZY
THROUGH THE DAY, PARTICULARLY IN NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30 MPH POSSIBLE. HEADING INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS, A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AS SPLIT
FLOW SETS UP OVER THE REGION AND A RIDGE MOVES IN. SUNDAY HIGHS
RETURN TO THE 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. BY MONDAY,
WIDESPREAD 60S ALONG WITH A FEW 70S ARE EXPECTED. WITH THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES, WE ARE EXPECTING THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE ALONG THE
ELKHORN, LOUP AND PLATTE RIVERS TO BREAK UP AND POTENTIALLY CAUSE
SOME ICE JAM ISSUES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RIVER LEVELS FOR
POTENTIAL ISSUES WITH ICE BREAK UP, JAMS, AND POTENTIAL FLOODING
OVER THE COMING DAYS. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AREAS IN NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA WILL HAVE MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID-20S, CO-LOCATED WITH
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 15-20MPH. WITH AS WARM AS TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AND GUSTY WINDS, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT WE
OVERACHIEVE ON TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS, WHICH WOULD POTENTIALLY
LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES. THIS WILL BE A SITUATION WE WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES.
AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY CONDITIONS, WE WILL SEE THE PATTERN SHIFT
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. PERIODIC CHANCES (20-30%) FOR PRECIPITATION
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS, WITH SNOW POSSIBLE AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
20S AND 30S EACH NIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1051 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AS
SOUTHERLY GUSTS OF 20-27 KTS PERSIST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY CALM
UNDER 12 KTS BY 08/00-02Z, VEERING TO NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AROUND
FL250.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR NEZ016-017-031>033-
042>045-050>053-067.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...WOOD
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