834
FXUS63 KOAX 080509
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1109 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S TODAY, WARMING INTO THE 50S ON SUNDAY, AND 60S ON
MONDAY. PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA MAY SURPASS 70 ON
MONDAY.
- ONGOING WARMTH INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER ICE BREAKUP
AND ICE JAMS. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PLATTE,
ELKHORN, AND LOUP RIVERS.
- PERIODIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES (15-30%) RETURN WEDNESDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 106 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON DEPICT A
MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS. MEANWHILE, AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS HAS
FORCED A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING.
THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WON'T HAVE MUCH OF AN EFFECT ON
TEMPERATURES TODAY AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS TRANSITIONED BACK TO
SOUTHERLY, BRINGING AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW
50S. WHILE THESE AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS FOR EARLY FEBRUARY, THEY HAVE BEEN MET WITH 25-35 MPH
WIND GUSTS.
A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. WHILE
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING ALOFT WILL DAMPEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
ANOTHER ROUND OF WAA WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S,
WITH MONDAY'S HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE WIDESPREAD 60S. MONDAY IS
SHAPING UP TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY ARE LIKELY TO REACH THE LOW 70S IN EAST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA
(60-75% PROBABILITY, PER THE NBM). RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY
BE CHALLENGED ON MONDAY AT OMAHA (63 DEGREES, SET IN 1954),
LINCOLN (68 DEGREES, SET IN 1954) AND NORFOLK (68 DEGREES, SET
IN 1954) ON MONDAY. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL ALSO NEED
MONITORED FOR MONDAY AS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA RESIDE
UNDER VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER. WHILE WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE (SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS OF 15-25 MPH), AFTERNOON MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE 22-30%
RANGE.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR ICE JAMS AS CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES PROMOTE RIVER ICE
BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT. THIS INCREASES THE RISK FOR ICE TO BECOME
LODGED AND CAUSE SUDDEN RISES IN WATER LEVELS. ACCORDINGLY, A FLOOD
WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE PLATTE,
ELKHORN, AND LOUP RIVERS. RIVER GAUGES AND OBSERVATIONAL REPORTS
WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND...
TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERSIST WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES BRINGING
PERIODIC LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY WILL BRING HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY PERSIST IN THE 40S (5-10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS) WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.
THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL TRANSITION MORE TO A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN, WITH
PERIODIC DISTURBANCES PASSING TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH. WITH THIS IN
MIND, 15-30% POPS ENTER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, EXPECT DRY PERIODS TO OUTNUMBER WET ONES.
MOISTURE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WILL REMAIN LIMITED, WITH GEFS AND
EPS/EPS-AIFS 50TH PERCENTILE QPF PEAKING UNDER 0.05".
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL ALSO BE SOMETHING TO WATCH, AS OVERNIGHT
LOWS DIP BELOW FREEZING DAILY. CURRENTLY, THE BETTER SNOW
POTENTIAL LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH, WITH ONLY A 10-30%
PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST ONE INCH ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
GEFS/AI-GEFS SUGGESTS A POTENTIALLY MORE ROBUST SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND, WHILE EPS/EPS-AIFS SOLUTIONS
KEEP THE SYSTEM WEAKER AND TRACK IT FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA.
THIS FEATURE WILL BE MONITORED FOR TRENDS AS IT APPROACHES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE TURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST AND WILL STAY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST INTO SUNDAY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT BACK TO SOUTHEASTERLY SUNDAY EVENING.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR NEZ016-017-031>033-
042>045-050>053-067.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOOD
AVIATION...MCCOY
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