650
FXUS63 KOAX 091116
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
516 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR ICE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TODAY FOR
THE PLATTE, LOUP AND ELKHORN RIVERS. WITH THE CONTINUOUS
WARMER TEMPERATURES, WE ARE MONITORING THESE AREAS CLOSELY. A
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
- ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD HIGHS BEING SET THIS AFTERNOON.
- PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CWA TODAY, WITH
WARMER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. THERE IS INCREASING CONCERN
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON,
PARTICULARLY FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. MODELS
ARE SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS, DUE TO MIXING. BUMPED UP
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL
WARMING. WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN TWEAKED TO ACCOUNT FOR GUSTY WINDS
ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS MINIMUM RH VALUES FALL INTO THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO 20+ MPH, WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
EXPECTED WITHIN THE AREA WITH THE LOWEST RH VALUES. WE ARE CLOSE ON
FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA AND IF WINDS OR TEMPERATURES OVERACHIEVE A
LITTLE BIT, WE COULD BRIEFLY MEET HEADLINE CRITERIA. CONFIDENCE WAS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE THE WARNING. REGARDLESS, IF A FIRE DOES
SPARK, THERE COULD BE SOME ISSUES WITH FIRE GROWTH AND SPREAD.
AS FAR AS HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY, WE ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
MID-60S TO MID-70S. CURRENT STANDING RECORDS ARE AS FOLLOWS:
LINCOLN: 68 SET IN 1954
OMAHA: 63 SET IN 1954
NORFOLK: 68 SET IN 1954
THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAS ALL THREE SITES REACHING THE
70S, A GOOD FIVE TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE THE RECORDS. WITH THE
CONTINUED WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED, WE ARE STILL MONITORING THE
ELKHORN, LOUP AND PLATTE RIVERS FOR ICE MOVEMENT. ICE JAMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS ALONG
THESE RIVERS. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
FOR AREAS ALONG THE PLATTE, ELKHORN AND LOUP RIVERS.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
EFFECTIVELY HELP MINIMUM RH VALUES IMPROVE. THE FROPA WILL NOT HAVE
AN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY, BUT COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE
IN FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S AND LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES (20-40%) FOR
PRECIPITATION. RAIN WILL BE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH
SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES DROP AT NIGHT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 512 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON, SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST BY 01Z AT KOFK AND 03Z AT KOMA AND KLNK.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NEZ016-017-031>033-
042>045-050>053-067.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...ANW
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