800
FXUS63 KOAX 091934
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
134 PM CST MON FEB 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR ICE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TODAY FOR THE
PLATTE, LOUP AND ELKHORN RIVERS. WITH THE CONTINUOUS WARMER
TEMPERATURES, WE ARE MONITORING THESE AREAS CLOSELY. A FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA,
WITH WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING TO COMPLICATE
FIRE RESPONSE.
- ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD HIGHS BEING SET THIS AFTERNOON.
- PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 132 PM CST MON FEB 9 2026
TODAY:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON FEATURES SPLIT FLOW IN THE UPPER
LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS, WITH THE HEART OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM STAYING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. ZOOMING IN LOCALLY, WE FIND
OURSELVES BEHIND A WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT
FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT, DESPITE WINDS UNDER-PERFORMING AND
UNDER-MIXING COMPARED THE INITIAL EXPECTATION. THE WARM
TEMPERATURES HAVE DRIVEN HUMIDITY VALUES DOWN INTO THE 20-30%
RANGE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, WITH SOME FURTHER REDUCTION
EXPECTED BEFORE OUR HEATING TOPS OUT AT 3 PM. WITH THAT SAID,
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME DANGER IF WINDS GUST TO 25 OR 30 MPH
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA (10% CHANCE). FLOODING RISK DUE TO
ICE JAMMING ON THE PLATTE, ELKHORN, AND LOUP RIVERS CONTINUES
WITH THOSE WARM TEMPERATURES AND RESULTANT MELTING CAUSING SOME
MINOR JUMPS AND DIPS IN THE HYDROGRAPHS. AS OF NOW, THERE STILL
IS PLENTY OF ICE IN THE LOUP RIVER NEAR COLUMBUS TO EVENTUALLY
FLUSH OUT INTO THE PLATTE RIVER TO CAUSE POTENTIAL ISSUES,
SUSTAINING THE RISK INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LATER THIS EVENING,
A WIND SHIFT AND GUSTY WINDS WILL MOVE THROUGH BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST, WITH SPEEDS BRIEFLY HITTING 25-30 MPH
AROUND 10 PM TO 2 AM BEFORE DIMINISHING THROUGH 6 AM.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND:
BY TUESDAY, WE'LL SEE THE DEPARTURE OF THE RECORD-BREAKING WARMTH IN
FAVOR OF HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S (WELL ABOVE OUR NORMAL
MID 30S FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL LINGER
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY, CONTINUING TO DECREASE IN SPEED INTO THE
AFTERNOON WHILE CLOUDS BECOME INCREASINGLY SPARSE BY 6 PM. OUR DRY
WEATHER PATTERN IS POISED TO HOLD ON GOING INTO THE MID-TO-LATE
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST, WITH SOME FORM OF QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WARDING
AWAY SOUTHERN MOISTURE, MAKING US RELY ON CLIPPERS AND MOUNTAIN-
SURVIVING MOISTURE TO RESULT IN ANY RAIN/SNOW LOCALLY. HIGHS DO LOOK
TO REMAIN WELL-ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 40S AND 50S THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK, MAKING ANY OF THOSE SNOW CHANCES ENTIRELY DEPENDENT ON
WHAT TIME OF DAY THEY FALL.
FOCUSING MORE ON ANY PRECIPITATION, MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON AN
INITIAL CLIPPER THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY FROM THE
NORTHWEST, PROVIDING ONLY GLANCING BLOWS AT TRACE MOISTURE. THE NEXT
SHOT AT PRECIPITATION REMAINS WITH A COMPACT SHORTWAVE THAT
EJECTS EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, MAKING INTO
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY SATURDAY. RUN-TO-RUN MODEL
TRENDS HAVE THE GUTS OF THE SYSTEM DRIFTING FARTHER SOUTHWARD,
AND THE LATEST SUITE OF DETERMINISTIC MODELS FAVOR KANSAS AND
POINTS SOUTH FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO
INDICATE WE HAVE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE AT SEEING SOMETHING THIS
WEEKEND, BUT ANYTHING THAT DOES REACH THE GROUND WILL STRUGGLE
TO HIT 0.1", AND NOT REALLY MAKING A DENT IN OUR DRYNESS SO FAR
THIS WINTER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS, WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS BEING ROOTED IN THE WINDS.
DIRECTIONS HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHWESTERLY FOR MOST OF THE AREA
ALREADY, WITH KOMA EXPECTED TO FOLLOW SUIT SHORTLY. GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KTS BEFORE SLOWING
DOWN CLOSER TO 23-00Z, THEN WINDS SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY BETWEEN
03-05Z. STRONG WINDS AT FL015 WILL MAKE FOR LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
AT KOMA AND KLNK, WITH GUSTS CATCHING UP AT 22-28 KTS AFTER 06Z.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ016-017-
031>033-042>045-050>053-067.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PETERSEN
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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