801
FXUS63 KOAX 240507
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1107 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES TREND UPWARDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
- RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES (40-60%) RETURN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH SOME SNOW MIXING IN LATE ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA.
- HIGHS CONTINUE CLIMBING THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, PEAKING FRIDAY
IN THE 60S BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOTS AT PRECIPITATION MOVE
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 127 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
TODAY AND TOMORROW:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON FEATURES A DEEP MID/UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUING TO SPIN OVER NEW ENGLAND, WHILE BOARD RIDGING TAKES
FURTHER HOLD ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS. STOUT HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS FROM MINNESOTA DOWN INTO EASTERN TEXAS AT THE SURFACE,
WITH A HANDFUL OF WEAKER BOUNDARIES SEPARATING THE COLD AIR IN
PLACE FROM WARMER, DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS FROM THE WEST. TODAY
STARTS OUR CLIMB OUT OF THE ICE BOX IN TERMS OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES. RESIDUAL SNOWPACK HAS PROVEN TO BE STUBBORN IN
TANDEM WITH THE COLD AIR USHERED IN FROM THE LATE WEEK ACTIVITY,
BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE THAT IS MOVING EASTWARD WILL HELP
BUILD LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING TO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES OVER
THE SNOWPACK VERSUS THOSE JUST OUTSIDE VARY BY AS MUCH AS 9
DEGREES TODAY, WITH THAT CONTRAST EXPECTED TO BE ONLY STRONGER
TOMORROW AS HIGHS CLIMB OVER 50 DEGREES FOR MOST OF THE AREA
WHILE 40S SEEM MORE LIKELY WHERE THE MOST SNOW FELL. IN ADDITION
TO THE TEMPERATURES BEING AFFECTED, WE'LL BE EVAPORATING QUITE
A BIT OF MOISTURE INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER, AND FOG POTENTIAL
WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD, ESPECIALLY AS ANY WIND
SHIFTS MOVE THROUGH.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND:
BY WEDNESDAY, OUR MID/UPPER PATTERN WILL FLATTEN AS THE FRONT END OF
A BROAD SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. AT THE
SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN TO THE WEST AND SHOOT SOUTHEAST,
EVENTUALLY FAVORING A LOW CENTER OVER EASTERN MISSOURI. AS THIS
OCCURS, VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL WORK WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION TO RESULT IN WHAT LOOKS TO BE MEAGER FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. SOUNDINGS VARY QUITE A BIT FROM MODEL TO MODEL,
WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW LOOKING MOST LIKELY WITH SOME CHANCE
FOR SOME FREEZING ONTO SURFACES AS WE COOL OVERNIGHT. AREAS WITH
RAIN WILL HAVE ENOUGH WARMTH IN THE LOW LEVELS TO MELT SNOW, BUT AS
YOU APPROACH AND PUSH INTO SOUTH DAKOTA, WE COULD SEE UP TO HALF AN
INCH. CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
MID-DAY WEDNESDAY, LASTING THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
FROM THERE, WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW IS A LOCK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH THE MAIN THINGS TO WATCH BEING A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES
THAT COULD BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN/SNOW CHANCES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THEN, HIGHS WILL REBOUND FROM THE 40S INTO THE
UPPER 60S FRIDAY, PUTTING US RIGHT BACK ONTO THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS WE WARM, FIRE DANGER WILL ALSO RAMP
UP, WITH WINDS SPEEDS MAKING OR BREAKING WHETHER OR NOT WE'LL
PUSH INTO EXTREME FIRE DANGER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER OVERCAST SKIES. THE
PRIMARY CONCERN IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF LLWS WITH STRONG WINDS
DEVELOPING AT FL015. THESE WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL START
WITH A GREATER SOUTHERLY COMPONENT (210 DEGREES) AND TURN
WESTERLY OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT SIX HOURS.
BY SUNRISE, THE WINDS WILL BE MORE UNIFORM AND WIND SHEAR WILL
BE LESS OF A CONCERN. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER, BECOMING
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PETERSEN
AVIATION...NICOLAISEN
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