530
FXUS63 KOAX 251124
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
524 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW (40-60% CHANCE) WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH ANY SNOW REMAINING NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
NORFOLK TO OMAHA, BEFORE EXITING LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING.
- HIGHS CONTINUE CLIMBING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK, PEAKING ON FRIDAY IN THE 60S AND 70S.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND AS A LARGE TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ALSO RETURN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW BY SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND WEAK REFLECTIVITY RETURNS ALOFT ARE
INDICATIVE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH IS
ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND WILL
INFLUENCE THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES START OFF COLD
IN THE 20S AS A BROAD WARM FRONTAL ZONE DEVELOPS FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FROM NEAR NORFOLK TO OMAHA.
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 40S AND 50S SOUTH OF THIS FRONT WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S AND UPPER 30S TO THE NORTH.
DURING THIS TIME, A 40-60% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS
THE REGION. RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. AREAS TO THE NORTH ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE MORE OF A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. THESE AREAS MAY
ALSO CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW
FREEZING. WHILE SOME SNOW IS ANTICIPATED, ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
MINIMAL WITH PERHAPS A SLUSHY DUSTING FOR THESE AREAS. OVERALL,
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SOME ICY SPOTS AS ANY RAIN AND SNOW
FREEZES OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 20S BY THURSDAY
MORNING.
ANY ICE OR SNOW WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO WARM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WESTERLY WINDS AND
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE PUSHES TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR
60 BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARM TEMPERATURES PEAK ON FRIDAY
WITH 60S BEING COMMON ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME LOCATIONS
FLIRTING WITH 70.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE WARM WEATHER IS NOT GOING TO LAST, AS A
LARGE TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES. THIS PUSHES COOLER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
REGION BY THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THIS
TROUGH SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
CURRENTLY, THE BEST CHANCE (20-40%) OF PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO
ARRIVE ON SUNDAY. MOSTLY SNOW IS FORECAST, BUT IMPACTS APPEAR
MINOR AT THIS TIME WITH THE WORST IMPACTS FOCUSED EAST OF THE
AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED AS THERE REMAINS A
FAIR BIT OF SPREAD BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS ON THE EXACT TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO CLIMB ONCE
AGAIN NEXT WEEK WITH PERHAPS SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 517 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
DESPITE SOME RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING, DO NOT
EXPECT ANY FLURRIES TO REACH THE SURFACE OR AERODROMES THANKS TO
A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER (10% CHANCE). HAVE KEPT PRECIP CHANCES
AWAY UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH BEST CHANCES ON THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. CONSIDERED LEAVING PRECIP OUT OF THE
LINCOLN TAF, BUT RAN WITH PROB30 AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. MOST
PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN, BUT SOME FLAKES WILL MIX IN,
ESPECIALLY AT KOFK. NO ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED.
WINDS DRIVE THE OTHER LINE CHANGES IN THE TAFS AS WINDS WILL BE
CHANGING DIRECTION THROUGH THE DAY. NORTHERLY WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY BY NOON AND WILL BE PRIMARILY
OUT OF THE EAST BY 6PM.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CHEHAK
AVIATION...NICOLAISEN
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