074
FXUS63 KOAX 251751
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1151 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW (40-60% CHANCE) WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH ANY SNOW REMAINING NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
NORFOLK TO OMAHA, BEFORE EXITING LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING.
- HIGHS CONTINUE CLIMBING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK, PEAKING ON FRIDAY IN THE 60S AND 70S.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND AS A LARGE TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ALSO RETURN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW BY SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND WEAK REFLECTIVITY RETURNS ALOFT ARE
INDICATIVE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH IS
ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND WILL
INFLUENCE THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES START OFF COLD
IN THE 20S AS A BROAD WARM FRONTAL ZONE DEVELOPS FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FROM NEAR NORFOLK TO OMAHA.
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 40S AND 50S SOUTH OF THIS FRONT WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S AND UPPER 30S TO THE NORTH.
DURING THIS TIME, A 40-60% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS
THE REGION. RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. AREAS TO THE NORTH ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE MORE OF A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. THESE AREAS MAY
ALSO CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW
FREEZING. WHILE SOME SNOW IS ANTICIPATED, ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
MINIMAL WITH PERHAPS A SLUSHY DUSTING FOR THESE AREAS. OVERALL,
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SOME ICY SPOTS AS ANY RAIN AND SNOW
FREEZES OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 20S BY THURSDAY
MORNING.
ANY ICE OR SNOW WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO WARM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WESTERLY WINDS AND
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE PUSHES TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR
60 BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARM TEMPERATURES PEAK ON FRIDAY
WITH 60S BEING COMMON ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME LOCATIONS
FLIRTING WITH 70.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE WARM WEATHER IS NOT GOING TO LAST, AS A
LARGE TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES. THIS PUSHES COOLER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
REGION BY THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THIS
TROUGH SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
CURRENTLY, THE BEST CHANCE (20-40%) OF PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO
ARRIVE ON SUNDAY. MOSTLY SNOW IS FORECAST, BUT IMPACTS APPEAR
MINOR AT THIS TIME WITH THE WORST IMPACTS FOCUSED EAST OF THE
AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED AS THERE REMAINS A
FAIR BIT OF SPREAD BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS ON THE EXACT TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO CLIMB ONCE
AGAIN NEXT WEEK WITH PERHAPS SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED AT THE START OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW LIGHT RETURNS APPROACHING KOFK AS WELL
AS KOMA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IS RESULTING
IN LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND AS CLOUD
BASES RANGE FROM SCT TO BKN AT 5 TO 11KFT. A SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN
RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE AREA, WHILE LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM KLCG TO KHNR. HAVE
INTRODUCED TEMPO GROUPS AT KOMA AND KLNK WHERE CONFIDENCE FOR
OCCURRENCE OF -SHRA IS GREATEST, BUT HAVE KEPT CEILINGS VFR.
PRECIPITATION EXITS THE AREA AFTER 02Z WITH VFR PREVAILING.
THERE IS A LOW 20 TO 30% CHANCE FOR FOG/LOW VISIBILITY AND
CEILING RESTRICTIONS AT KOMA AND KLNK FROM 08Z TO 15Z, BUT
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE SO LEFT
MENTIONS OUT FOR NOW. WINDS REMAIN UNDER 12 KTS AND TURN EAST
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SWINGING WEST SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY MORNING AND BECOMING BREEZY.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CHEHAK
AVIATION...CASTILLO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page