865
FXUS63 KOAX 271719
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1119 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. DRY
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS WILDFIRE
CONDITIONS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING IS
IN EFFECT.
- TURNING COLDER THIS WEEKEND WITH A 50-70% CHANCE OF SNOW
SUNDAY. SOME ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE WITH A 20-30% CHANCE OF
TRAVEL IMPACTS.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES (30-60% POPS) CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW CURRENTLY FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
FRIDAY:
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN LATE THIS EVENING IS
FORECAST TO UNDERGO CONSIDERABLE AMPLIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS AN ASSOCIATED JET STREAK PROGRESSES INTO THE GREAT LAKES,
WITHIN THE BASE OF THE INTENSIFYING SYSTEM. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD
FRONT TRAILING A DEEPENING CYCLONE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO WILL
ADVANCE SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER-MS VALLEY,
REACHING NORTHEAST NE BY AFTERNOON. AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO
THE 60S TO LOWER 70S DURING PEAK HEATING.
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT WILL FOSTER DEEP,
BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING INTO THE 15-25%
RANGE BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS (FROM THE
NORTHWEST) ARE EXPECTED IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT IN NORTHEAST
NE WHERE GUSTS COULD REACH 35 MPH. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF
CRITICALLY LOW RH AND GUSTY WINDS, THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING. VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
SATURDAY:
A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDING MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET
STREAKS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER-
MS VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP EAST
THROUGH KS AND MO, WHILE A COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTH THROUGH THE MID-
MO VALLEY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SNOWBAND ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM REMAINING TO OUR NORTH WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WE MAY SEE A FAIRLY LARGE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 30S IN OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES TO 50S ALONG THE KS AND MO BORDERS.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT:
THE 12Z AND 18Z GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN THE
PROGRESSION OF A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS PERIOD. IN THE LOW
LEVELS, POST-FRONTAL, COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING. BY SUNDAY, A SOUTHERLY LOW-
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SYSTEM WITH STRONG WARM-ADVECTION/
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID-MO VALLEY. THOSE
PROCESSES WILL LARGELY DRIVE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS
PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OF 50-70% FORECAST ON SUNDAY. IT
STILL APPEARS THAT SNOW WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION
TYPE. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A MODEL SIGNAL FOR SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE MIXING IN MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NE WHERE THE AGGREGATE OF GEFS, EPS, AND CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE (GEPS) SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A WARM NOSE
ATOP A SUB-FREEZING NEAR SURFACE LAYER.
THE LOCATION AND SPECIFIC AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL STILL REMAIN
UNCERTAIN. THE 18Z RUNS OF THE EPS AND GEFS BOTH TRENDED LOWER
WITH SNOWFALL POTENTIAL COMPARED TO THE 12Z RUNS. THE GEFS
CONTINUES TO FOCUS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY (50-60% CHANCE) OF 1"
OR MORE IN FAR SOUTHEAST NE. IN CONTRAST, THE EPS SHOWS A
20-30% CHANCE OF 1" OR MORE IN SOUTHWEST IA, WITH THE 27/01Z RUN
OF THE NBM INDICATING A 30-40% CHANCE OF 1" OR MORE FROM EAST-
CENTRAL NE INTO SOUTHWEST IA.
THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST AS
SOME IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE (20-30% CHANCE).
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
THE 12Z AND 18Z ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN DEPICTING THE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH DOWNSTREAM, CONFLUENT FLOW
OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION. HOWEVER, SUBTLE DIFFERENCES
IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS LEAD TO
CONSIDERABLY MORE MODEL VARIABILITY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SURFACE PATTERN. IN GENERAL, IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL REMAIN TO
THE NORTH OF A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE OZARKS WITH THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
EXISTING IN THE VICINITY OF THAT BOUNDARY.
THIS FORECAST UPDATE WILL INDICATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THIS PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OF 40-60% ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE MAINLY
IN THE 40S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S, LEADING TO A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT THE
TERMINALS. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO SHIFT THIS EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MEAD
AVIATION...ANW
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