657
FXUS63 KOAX 281123
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
523 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT (30-60% POPS),
MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80. ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO ONE OR TWO
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE. SOME
AREA ROADS COULD BECOME SLICK SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND. THE BEST CHANCES (50-80% POPS) ARE MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING SOUTH THROUGH THE MID-MO VALLEY
THIS EVENING WITH A COOLER, LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS ACROSS NORTHEAST NE
INTO WEST-CENTRAL IA. HOWEVER, ANY SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SD AND MN.
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE SATURDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES CONTRIBUTING TO HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
40S IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES TO AROUND 60 ALONG THE KS BORDER.
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT:
THE PRIMARY FOCUS THIS PERIOD IS SNOWFALL POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK, MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
LATEST PARAMETERIZED AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS HAVE TRENDED
SOUTH WITH THEIR QPF COMPARED TO EARLIER RUNS. IN FACT, MANY OF
THE 00Z CAMS INDICATE LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA
THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY. WHILE WE WON'T TAKE THAT DRASTIC OF AN
APPROACH TO THE GOING FORECAST, WE HAVE LOWERED POPS IN
NORTHEAST NE AND WEST-CENTRAL IA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SOUTHWARD
SHIFT.
THE VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS INDICATE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME 1-2" ACCUMULATIONS IN FAR SOUTHEAST NE
WITH A VERY SHARP CUTOFF WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT. AGAIN, THE
LATEST CAM DATA SUGGEST EVEN LOWER AMOUNTS. THIS FORECAST
UPDATE WILL INDICATE A BROADER AREA OF TRACE UP TO 1-1.5"
AMOUNTS TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL MODEL FLUCTUATIONS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE IN SOUTHEAST NE SUNDAY NIGHT AS SATURATION IS
LOST IN THE ICE-BEARING LAYER. ANY LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION AND/OR
SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL LEAD TO SLIPPERY ROADS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
NEXT WEEK:
LATEST ENSEMBLE DATA ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST MONDAY MORNING. THAT
FEATURE IS PROJECTED TO ADVANCE EAST; HOWEVER, THE MODELS VARY
ON THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THAT SYSTEM, AS WELL AS TO WHAT EXTENT
IT INTERACTS WITH ANY POLAR-BRANCH DISTURBANCES PASSING TO IT'S
IMMEDIATE NORTH. THAT LEADS TO MODEL VARIATIONS IN THE EVOLUTION
OF THE SURFACE PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL U.S., AS WELL AS THE
LOCATION AND COVERAGE OF ANY PRECIPITATION.
ALL THAT BEING SAID, THERE IS SOME MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL PRECEDE THE WEST COAST SYSTEM, MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FORECAST UPDATE
WILL INCREASE POPS TO 50-80% MONDAY NIGHT AS THAT PERTURBATION
GLANCES THE AREA. THEREAFTER, SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS DEVELOP A
ROBUST SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN PLAINS IN
THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME WITH OUR AREA RESIDING ON THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF A LARGE QPF FOOTPRINT. THERE IS A GROWING
MODEL SIGNAL FOR A MORE PROMINENT TROUGH TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WEST THURSDAY WITH A LEE CYCLONE DEEPENING IN THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES. WE'LL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.
THE FORECAST WILL INDICATE 20-50% POPS IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
PERIOD. BUT, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE. A WARMING TREND IS
FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S MONDAY WARMING INTO THE
40S AND 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AND POTENTIALLY 60S BY
THURSDAY. SO, ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING DURING THE DAY WOULD
LIKELY BE RAIN WITH A RAIN-SNOW MIX OR LIGHT SNOW AT NIGHT.
THERE IS CURRENTLY NO MODEL SIGNAL FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATION.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT EAST WINDS
BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AHEAD OF A PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THIS MORNING. A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS WILL AGAIN BECOME EASTERLY
TONIGHT AS A SEPARATE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MEAD
AVIATION...CHEHAK
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