024
FXUS63 KOAX 011735
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1135 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WINTRY SYSTEM ARRIVES SUNDAY/MONDAY, BRINGING CHANCES FOR
SNOW, ICE, AND DRIZZLE TO AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-80.
- TEMPERATURES BEGIN TRENDING UPWARDS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK, KEEPING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION AS RAIN.
- A ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, WITH RAIN
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS WEAK TROUGHING CENTERED OVER
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS, WHILE ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
POURS IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO KEEP ITS HOLD OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GREAT
PLAINS, WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS USHERING IN TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S
ACROSS THE AREA, THAT ARE SET TO FURTHER DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS
AND LOWER 20S AT THEIR LOWEST POINT OVERNIGHT. THOUGH CURRENT
DEWPOINTS ARE NEAR THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES, DRY AIR
ADVECTION WILL COUNTERACT ANY COOLING TO REDUCE ANY FOG CHANCES TO
NEARLY ZERO.
BY SUNRISE TOMORROW, A SWATH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCOMING
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL KICK START OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND WILL SERVE AS THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF
SNOW/ICE THAT MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN IOWA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WE FIND OURSELVES ON
THE NORTHERN END OF THE PRECIPITATION, WITH LOWER COVERAGE DUE
TO THE LIMITED NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THUS HAVE
LOWER EXPECTATIONS FOR ANY SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATIONS. OVERALL QPF
WITH THE LATEST RUNS OF THE MODELS HAS INCREASED, BUT A MESSY
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL CUT DOWN ON WHAT ACTUALLY PILES UP AT
THE SURFACE, AS THAT WAA ADVECTION STRENGTHENS TO PUSH TEMPS TO
FREEZING AND PARTIALLY MELT SNOW ALOFT. EXPECT SUB-TEN-TO-ONE
SNOW RATIOS WHERE YOU DO SEE SNOW, WITH NEAR FREEZING TO JUST
BELOW TEMPERATURES (THAT ONLY COOL OVERNIGHT), MAKING ANY ICE
AND RE-FREEZING OF MELTED RAIN/SNOW/ICE THE BIGGEST THING TO BE
READY FOR. THE LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO SEE SOME ICE IMPACTS
(50-70% CHANCE) HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OUT FOR THEM,
WHILE ANY FURTHER EXPANSION DEPENDING ON WHETHER OR NOT AMOUNTS
TREND UPWARDS.
AS THE MAIN SHIELD OF RAIN/WINTRY MIX SHUFFLES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY, MARGINAL LIFT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY, RESULTING IN AREAS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE. LATEST RUNS OF THE SHORT-TERM MODELS HAVE
DISPARATE COVERAGE FOR THE DRIZZLE, LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN IT
OCCURRING (10-30% CHANCE). NONETHELESS, THE LIMITED COVERAGE,
DURATION, AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD MEAN ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
INEFFICIENT AND LIMIT IMPACTS TO THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
MONDAY AND BEYOND:
AS THE MORNING ROUNDS OUT INTO THE AFTERNOON, EXPECT THE DREARY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH ANY SLICKNESS MELTING
THANKS TO HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT PUSH INTO THE 40S IN ANTICIPATION
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS THIS SYSTEM
REACHES THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA, IT
WILL MEANDER SOUTHEAST AND HELP KEEP PROLONGED PRECIPITATION
FORECAST FOR THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS IT LINGERS, MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE A GOOD QUARTER TO HALF IN OF
RAINFALL THAT WOULD GO A LONG WAY TO HELP US WITH RECENT
DRYNESS. TEMPERATURES TREND UPWARDS THROUGH THIS STRETCH WITH
THE PROLONGED SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, PEAKING
THURSDAY AS A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN CHANCES LEAVE
US WITH SUNNY SKIES AND A THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE AREA. HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND, MODEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES, BUT WE DO HAVE
GOOD ODDS OF SEEING MORE BENEFICIAL PRECIPITATION HEADED FOR US
AS ANOTHER TROUGH SHEDS A SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA BEFORE
RETROGRADING TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
KOFK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING AT THE TERMINAL.
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BY 02Z AS STRATUS MOVES INTO THE
REGION WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
MOVING AROUND THE TERMINAL BUT AT THIS POINT IN TIME, SNOW
CHANCES ARE NOT GREAT AT KOFK. CONDITIONS FALL TO MVFR AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY. FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY
DEVELOP, PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF I-80, BUT WE ARE NOT CURRENTLY
THINKING IT WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL AT THIS TIME.
KOMA: CEILINGS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR LEVELS AND ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT, CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER AS STRATUS MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME POCKETS
OF LIGHT SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, WITH BETTER CHANCES SOUTH OF THE
TERMINAL. FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY, HAVE OPTED TO NOT PUT SNOW
IN PREVAILING CONDITIONS. THE BEST CHANCE SHOULD ANYTHING MAKE
IT AS FAR EAST AS THE TERMINAL WOULD BE BETWEEN 19Z AND 23Z.
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING, FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED
SOUTH OF I-80 WITH BETTER CHANCES TOWARD THE KS/NE BORDER. THERE
IS A SMALL (20%) CHANCE THAT A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR
NEAR KOMA, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION IS LOW.
KLNK: VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT THE TERMINAL EARLY IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER AS SNOW TO THE WEST OF
THE TERMINAL PUSHES INTO THE AREA. HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
SNOW IMPACTING THE TERMINAL THAT A MENTION WAS MADE BETWEEN 20Z
AND 00Z. CHANCES WILL BE NON-ZERO AFTER THAT TIME; HOWEVER THEY
WILL BE LOW. AFTER MIDNIGHT, THERE IS A CHANCE OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE TOWARD THE KS/NE BORDER. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING NEAR KLNK, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THIS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME, SO IT WAS NOT ADDED TO
PREVAILING CONDITIONS FOR NOW.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST
MONDAY FOR NEZ088>093.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PETERSEN
AVIATION...ANW
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