473
FXUS63 KOAX 012316
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
516 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW, A WINTRY MIX AND FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE A
FEW MORE COUNTIES. SLICK ROADS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR THE MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTE.
- ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLY A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE 60S AND POSSIBLY 70S
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 126 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW, A WINTRY MIX AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IMPACTING PORTIONS OF
THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION HAS BEGUN MOVING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST, CURRENTLY IMPACTING AREAS FROM SCHUYLER
(COLFAX COUNTY) TO FRIEND (SALINE COUNTY). LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE RECENT WARMTH AND
GROUND TEMPERATURES BEING ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THINGS, INITIAL
SNOWFALL WILL NOT STICK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON, BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX, PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS ALONG THE
KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER. TOTAL ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND
WINTRY MIX ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN A TRACE AND AN INCH, WITH MOST
AREAS UNDER 1/2 INCH. AFTER MIDNIGHT, WE ARE CONTINUING TO SEE
SIGNALS IN THERMAL PROFILES OF A POSSIBILITY OF SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE DEVELOPING IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. THIS POTENTIAL AND
FORECASTED ICE ACCUMULATIONS FROM A LIGHT GLAZE TO AROUND A TENTH OF
AN INCH OF ICE PROMPTED A WESTWARD EXPANSION OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. THE ADVISORY TIME IS STILL THE SAME, GOING INTO EFFECT AT
3PM THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH 9AM MONDAY, JUST WITH THE
ADDITION OF JEFFERSON, GAGE AND JOHNSON COUNTIES. AREAS THAT DO PICK
UP THE WINTRY MIX AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD HAVE SOME SLICK
SURFACES WHICH WILL IMPACT THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THERMAL
PROFILES DO HINT AT MAYBE A LOW POSSIBILITY (20% OR LESS) OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR AREAS FURTHER NORTH, TOWARD THE I-80 CORRIDOR;
HOWEVER, THAT POSSIBILITY IS LESS CERTAIN. DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE
SHOULD END BY AROUND 15Z.
WE WILL HAVE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH
POSSIBLY ANOTHER ROUND IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH WHERE THE EXPECTED P-TYPE WOULD BE
RAIN FOR MUCH OF THIS SECOND EVENT.
HEADING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT WEST TO A
SYSTEM COMING OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES. SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SOME
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL
REACH THE MID-40S TO LOW 50S. BY TUESDAY EVENING, THE DISTURBANCE
WILL BE CROSSING THE ROCKIES. ONE NOTABLE CHANGE IN THE MODELS IS A
SLOWING OF THE GFS SOLUTION, FALLING MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF.
THE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH, RESULTING IN A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN POPS FOR WEDNESDAY FROM WHAT WE HAD YESTERDAY. WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM THE OMAHA METRO TO SYRACUSE AND
TECUMSEH.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP OVER THE
REGION TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A LATE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING THE AREA, ALTHOUGH FEW OTHER DETAILS ARE KNOWN AT THIS
TIME.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 506 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE THIS EVENING, WITH LARGELY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KTS AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AT
FL060 JOINING IN. LATER THIS EVENING, MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD TO KLNK FIRST, FOLLOWED BY KOMA AND KOFK. SOME
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KLNK/KOMA AS FREEZING
DRIZZLE TRIES TO DEVELOP (10-20% CHANCE), BUT THE BETTER BET FOR
ANY FREEZING PRECIPITATION LIES CLOSER TO KBIE/KFNB. BY MID-
MORNING, CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE BACK INTO MVFR TERRITORY FOR ALL
THREE SITES, BECOMING VFR AT KOFK BY 21Z. JUST BEYOND THE TAF
PERIOD, MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC CONDITIONS ARE POISED TO MOVE IN
AND BRING IN WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS WHILE WINDS STAY
SOUTHEASTERLY.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR NEZ078-
088>093.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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