771
FXUS63 KOAX 020520
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1120 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LINGERS INTO MONDAY MORNING, DRIVEN
BY AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND ICY ROAD POTENTIAL ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.
- DREARY CONDITIONS AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK, INCLUDING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE 60S AND POSSIBLY 70S
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING:
DREARY CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE THIS EVENING, WITH NIGHTTIME
MICROPHYSICS RGB IMAGERY SHOWING SUB-FREEZING CLOUDS SPREADING
NORTHWARD FROM ITS THICKER COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.
TEMPERATURES UNDERNEATH THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN HOLDING JUST ABOVE
FREEZING, WITH VERY LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS, AS WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND VORTICITY ADVECTION DRIVE AREAS OF DRIZZLE ACROSS NORTHERN
KANSAS. SHORT-TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT WE'LL SLOWLY CONTINUE
COOLING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH CLOUD BASES TRENDING DOWN AND
A FEW AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
INTO SOUTHERN IOWA. SOME OF THE BETTER GUIDANCE THAT HAS BEST
DEPICTED ONGOING AREAS OF DRIZZLE HAVE BEEN LOWERED VISIBILITIES,
WHICH START BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS IT OCCURS,
NEAR TO JUST BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT
GLAZE OF ICE TO FORM, MAKING FOR SLICK SURFACES. RECENT OBSERVATIONS
OF ROAD TEMPERATURES HOVER ABOUT A DEGREE ABOVE THE AMBIENT AIR
VALUES, MAKING THE MOST LIKELY SPOTS TO SEE ANY SLICKNESS BEING
BRIDGES, SIDEWALKS, AND OTHER COMMON COLD SPOTS. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE AIMING TO FALL INTO THE 20S AREA-WIDE BY 5 AM,
REBOUNDING ABOVE FREEZING BY 11 AM. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS OUT
FOR THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE FREEZING DRIZZLE, COVERING THE
SOUTHERNMOST TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA THROUGH
9 AM TOMORROW MORNING. AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE SO FAR OF ANY FREEZING
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN UNDER-PERFORMING AND/OR THWARTED BY
JUST-ABOVE FREEZING CONDITIONS, BUT THE OVERNIGHT DRIZZLE SEEMS
TO BE ENOUGH OF A THREAT TO CARRY FORWARD THE LOW-END ADVISORY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MONDAY AND BEYOND:
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN LIFTING AS MIXING
INCREASES SLIGHTLY AND CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PUSH
TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE 40S. DURING THE EVENING HOURS, CONTINUED
LIFT IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND GRADUAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL HELP
FILL IN DEEP LAYERS OF CLOUD COVER -- FACILITATING OLD FASHIONED
DRIZZLE INTO THE AREA. IN FACT, TEMPERATURES AT THEIR LOWEST ARE
NOT FORECAST TO FALL BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE ENTIRE WORK
WEEK, SIMPLIFYING SOME OF THE MESSAGING AND RELIEVING THE AREA
OF ANY POTENTIAL HEADACHES. AS THE DRIZZLE FILLS IN MONDAY
EVENING, EXPECT VISIBILITY VALUES TO BEGIN DROPPING FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA TO BELOW 1 MILE AT TIMES HEADING INTO TUESDAY. DURING
THE MORNING HOURS, WE'LL FIND OURSELVES ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION, WITH MARGINAL LIFT LASTING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. LIGHT RAIN SEEMS TO BE A STRETCH AT THIS
POINT, WHILE MODELS INSTEAD FAVOR CONTINUED DRIZZLE AND ONLY
BRIEF BOUTS OF LIGHT, STRATIFORM RAIN. DESPITE THE DREARINESS,
TEMPERATURES TREND UPWARDS, TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S
AS LIGHTER, EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO HOLD IN PLACE.
LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS
WEDNESDAY, EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY AFTER NOON AND LETTING TEMPERATURES
SEE ANOTHER BUMP INTO WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 50S. HEADING INTO
THURSDAY, WE'LL FIND OURSELVES IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FROM THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS AND AN INCOMING LONGWAVE
TROUGH TO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A LARGE BUMP INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO JUST OVER 70 DEGREES, THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
FORECAST. AS OF NOW, GUSTY WINDS OF 25-30 MPH OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BE THE ONLY OTHER FORECAST DETAIL WORTH
MENTIONING THURSDAY, AS FIRE WEATHER WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
PARTICULARLY DRY AIRMASS. GRANTED, MODELS DO TEND TO
UNDERESTIMATE HOW DRY WE CAN GET IN THE MID-TO-LONG RANGE
(ESPECIALLY THE NBM), BUT THE DRIZZLE AND GENERALLY MOIST
CONDITIONS FOR THE FEW DAYS PRIOR WILL KEEP OVERALL FIRE DANGER
IN THE HIGH TO VERY HIGH CATEGORY.
DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO FRIDAY, THE MAIN WAVE
TO THE WEST WILL ARRIVE AND BRING OUR FIRST MEASURABLE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT HAIL. THERE WILL BE A
NARROW CORRIDOR OF OVERLAP BETWEEN THE STEEPER LAPSE 700-500 MB
RATES AND DEEPER LAYER SHEAR, THAT ENDS UP EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND IT AND TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST
OF THE INCOMING DRY SLOT, A BAND OF STRATIFORM RAIN WILL TAKE A
BIT LONGER BEFORE SCOOTING TO THE NORTHEAST, PRIMARILY AFFECTING
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA/NORTHWEST OF WHERE THE MAIN SURFACE LOW ENDS
UP TRACKING (BASED ON THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS).
GOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WE'LL SEE CONTINUED
WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A DRIER AIRMASS THAT COULD SPELL
INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THAT WILL DEPEND ON HOW GUSTY
WINDS WILL GET AT THE SURFACE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO MVFR OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO FALL TO
FUEL ALTERNATE HEIGHTS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA.
IFR CEILINGS ARE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP AT LNK THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. IFR CEILINGS MAY APPROACH THE OMA VICINITY, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THESE CEILINGS REACHING THE TERMINAL AT
THIS TIME. OUTSIDE OF CEILINGS, THERE IS A LOW (10-30%) CHANCE
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPING AT BOTH LNK AND OMA DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. WITH CONFIDENCE REMAINING LOW, HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THIS IN THE TAF FORECAST AT THIS TIME. TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED IF INCLUSION IS NEEDED. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, CEILINGS
MAY ONLY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY, CLIMBING TO HIGH-END MVFR BRIEFLY
BEFORE QUICKLY FALLING AFTER SUNSET MONDAY EVENING. IFR TO LIFR
CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD WITH FOG OR DRIZZLE EXPECTED AS WELL. THIS WOULD ALSO
REDUCE VISIBILITY TO MVFR OR IFR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
FREEZING DURING THIS TIME, SO NO FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST AT THE SURFACE. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR NEZ078-
088>093.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PETERSEN
AVIATION...CHEHAK
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