674
FXUS63 KOAX 160438
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1138 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LEAD TO PATCHY BLOWING SNOW THIS MORNING.
EXPECT SLICK SPOTS/BLACK ICE AS THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
REFREEZE LINGERING PRECIP ON ROADWAYS. USE EXTRA CAUTION WHEN
TRAVELING THIS MORNING.
- 30 TO 35 MPH NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF AFTER 7PM. THE WINDS COMBINED WITH SINGLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -23F IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WEST-CENTRAL IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING.
- 45 TO 60% CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY IN FAR NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA INTO WEST-CENTRAL IOWA. WARMING TREND STARTS
WEDNESDAY WITH LOCATIONS REACHING 80F BY FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
SHORT TERM
/TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
04Z RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS NOW SHOWS THE STRONG H5 LONGWAVE TROF
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. SNOW HAS GRADUALLY
COME TO AN END ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE MAIN PRECIP BAND
NOW WELL INTO CENTRAL IOWA. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE STRONG WITH SEVERAL
AREA PERSONAL WEATHER STATIONS AND METARS REPORTING GUSTS OF 50 TO
60 MPH. LOOKING AT THE KOAX 00Z RAOB, IT SHOWS A DRY ADIABATIC
PROFILE TO JUST ABOVE H9 WHERE A STRONG MAXIMA OF 50 TO 60 KT WINDS
ARE. AS THE MAIN LOW PIVOTS MORE TO THE EAST, SHOULD START TO SEE
SOME EASING UP ON THE WINDS AFTER 06Z. HOWEVER, STILL EXPECT GUSTS
OF 30 TO 35 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EVENING AS WE STILL MIX INTO A LINGERING 30 TO 35 KT JET.
THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE HELPED BRING IN A SURGE OF COLD AIR
INTO MUCH OF OAX WITHIN THE LAST FEW HOURS. THIS SIGNFICANTLY COLDER
AIR WILL HELP REFREEZE ANY PRECIP THAT MANAGED TO MELT ONTO AREA
ROADS, RESULTING IN AREAS OF BLACK ICE. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TOO, ESPECIALLY IN MORE
RURAL AREAS RESULTING IN LOCALIZED VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. PLAN TO
ADD SOME EXTRA MINUTES TO YOUR MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE TO ARRIVE AT
YOUR DESTINATION SAFELY.
THE COLD AIR COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO FRIGID WIND
CHILLS AS LOW AS -23F, PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
WEST CENTRAL IOWA WHERE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 15Z TODAY. WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW
ZERO ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
PLAN TO BUNDLE UP IF YOU MUST BE OUTDOORS THIS MORNING. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH NOT
MUCH AS WE'LL SEE WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO 20F
OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE DAY RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS AND WIND CHILLS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
TUESDAY WILL SEE A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA,
WHILE AT H8, THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SWINGS NORTHEAST. FORCING FROM THE
WAVE AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD WORK WITH A STREAM OF
PRIMARILY PACIFIC MOISTURE RESULTING IN PRECIP CHANCES OVER MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION (45 TO 60%)
ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WEST-CENTRAL IOWA.
REGARDING PTYPE, TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COLD ENOUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING FOR PRIMARILY SNOW IN THOSE AREAS. HOWEVER,
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SFC TEMPERATURES WARM, COULD SEE A PERIOD
OF FREEZING RAIN NEAR THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION ZONE IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THOSE AREAS SHOW A
SATURATED PROFILE WITH A WARM NOSE AT OR JUST ABOVE H8. THE DEPTH OF
THE WARM NOSE VARIES CONSIDERABLY AS DOES THE SFC TEMPERATURE ACROSS
AREAS. FOR THIS FORECAST UPDATE, LOCATIONS ALONG THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER INTO FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUBFREEZING TEMPS BELOW THE WARM NOSE WITH
FREEZING RAIN.
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THESE AREAS, TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO
ABOVE FREEZING AS DOES THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE WITH SNOW
CHANGING OVER TO RAIN. AND EVEN THEN, SOUNDINGS DO STRUGGLE TO
SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS THE FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST YOU GO, SO HAVE
CUT BACK NBM POPS TO 15 TO 30% FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AS FAR AS ANY SNOW AMOUNTS, THE LATEST 00Z HREF RUN SUGGESTS
AREAS ALONG THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER INTO WEST CENTRAL IOWA
HAVE A 10 TO 30% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 0.1 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW,
WHILE PROBABILITIES FOR 0.5 INCHES OR MORE SIGNIFICANTLY SHIFT NORTH
AND EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. POPS LARGELY TAPER OFF BY 00Z.
LONG TERM
/WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE MAIN MESSAGE FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE WARMING
PATTERN. 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES WILL INCREASE OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AREAS AS THE WESTERN RIDGE PUSHES EAST.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ACROSS OUR FAR WEST WEDNESDAY, UPPER 70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER OUR SOUTHWEST AREAS THURSDAY, AND WIDESPREAD 80S BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES COOL TO THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
BY SUNDAY. POP CHANCES REMAIN LESS THAN 10% FOR THE AREA FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD, SO ENJOY THE WARMTH AND DRY
WEATHER.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
MIXTURE OF IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS OBSERVED ACROSS TAF SITES TO
START THE PERIOD. POWERFUL NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO
50 KTS CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL
SHOULD COME TO AN END WITHIN THE NEXT TWO TO THREE HOURS FROM
WEST TO EAST, BUT WITH CONTINUED STRONG WINDS, SHOULD SEE
LOCALIZED VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS CONTINUE. CEILINGS LIFT TO VFR
AFTER 06Z INTO THE MORNING HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST
LINGERING CLOUDS AT 2,000 TO 3,000 FT BUT IN THE FEW TO SCT
RANGE. THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AFTER 12Z,
WITH LINGERING GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE
TAF CYCLE.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-
030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ011-012-
015-017-018-031>034-043>045.
IA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-
079-080-090-091.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT MONDAY FOR IAZ043-055-
056-069-080.
DISCUSSION...CASTILLO
AVIATION...CASTILLO
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