776
FXUS63 KOAX 162322
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
622 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLICK SPOTS AND BLACK ICE MAY PERSIST ON ROADWAYS AND
UNTREATED SURFACED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING.
- A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON (20-45% CHANCE), MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
SNOWFALL TOTALS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER ONE HALF INCH.
- A WARMING TREND BEGINS WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 80S
BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
TODAY AND TOMORROW...
AN IMPRESSIVE, HIGH-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN
CONUS. IN ITS WAKE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA,
ALLOWING WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. A COOLER
AIRMASS HAS SETTLED OVER THE REGION, KEEPING AFTERNOON HIGHS
CONFINED TO THE 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE DAY, LINGERING BLACK ICE MAY STILL BE
PRESENT ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS. ASSUME ANY WET-LOOKING SURFACE COULD
BE ICY. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH LOWS FALLING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AND WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM NEAR
ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
AS A REGION OF WAA DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH.
POPS IN THE 20-45% RANGE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA, DECREASING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS LIGHT
SNOW, THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR
BEFORE A SWITCH TO LIGHT RAIN AS PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF. MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE, SHOWING DRY AIR INTRUDING
INTO THE LOWEST 1-2 KM WHEN THE SHALLOW WARM NOSE DEVELOPS ALOFT. AS
A RESULT, OVERALL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL. SNOWFALL
TOTAL SHOULD REMAIN UNDER ONE INCH, WITH A 30-60% PROBABILITY OF AT
LEAST 0.10 INCH OF SNOW AND QPF LIMITED TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH.
AS WAA STRENGTHS FROM WEST TO EAST, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
TUESDAY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 30S ACROSS WESTERN
IOWA, INCREASING TO THE LOW 50S ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...
LONGWAVE MID-LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE CONUS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, SUPPORTING
A STEADY WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE 60S AND 70S, WITH WIDESPREAD 70S LIKELY ON
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH THE 80S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. RECORD HIGHS WILL BE WITHIN REACH ON
FRIDAY. CURRENT FORECASTS INDICATE HIGHS NEAR 83 IN OMAHA (RECORD 78
SET IN 1934), 86 IN LINCOLN (RECORD 80 SET IN 2022), AND 83 IN
NORFOLK (RECORD 81 SET IN 1934). NO NOTABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BRING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. WHILE NO SINGLE DAY APPEARS PARTICULARLY WINDY AT THIS
TIME, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE 17-25%
RANGE ON FRIDAY, WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 MPH.
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
EVENTUALLY DAMPEN THE RIDGE AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN, WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE 60S SUNDAY AND 50S BY MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED AT ALL TERMINALS AND WILL PERSIST
FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF CYCLE. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20
TO 25 KTS SUBSIDE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WINDS THEN
SWITCH DIRECTION TO SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER 08Z BUT REMAIN UNDER 12
KTS. THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS RAMP UP AGAIN BY THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT THE STRONGEST 25 TO 30 KT GUSTS AT KOFK,
WHILE 20 TO 25 KT GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AT KOMA AND KLNK.
THERE IS A 15 TO 30% CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE LATE MORNING,
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS, BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR INCLUSION IN TAF AT THIS TIME.
CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO 5,000 TO 7,000 FT IN THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOOD
AVIATION...CASTILLO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page