073
FXUS63 KOAX 171029
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
529 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SLICK SPOTS MAY EXIST EARLY THIS MORNING FROM
LINGERING MOISTURE REFREEZING ON AREA ROADS.
- 20 TO 45% CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX CONTINUES THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON FOR AREAS PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-80. A FEW AREAS
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WEST-CENTRAL IOWA COULD SEE SOME
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN (10-15%
CHANCE). SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN UNDER AN INCH.
- WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY BE BROKEN
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
SHORT TERM
/TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
04Z RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ELONGATED 1024 MB SFC RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE WINDS HAVE FINALLY SUBSIDED,
COLD TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN PLACE WITH METARS REPORTING TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS, WIND CHILLS WILL NOT
BE AS FRIGID COMPARED TO MONDAY MORNING, BUT STILL SHOULD SEE VALUES
HOVERING SLIGHTLY ABOVE AND BELOW 0F. A FEW SLICK SPOTS MAY REMAIN
ON AREA ROADWAYS FROM MELTED PRECIP REFREEZING, SO BE A BIT CAUTIOUS
WHILE HEADING OUT THE DOOR THIS MORNING.
AN H8 BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SWING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH WARM ADVECTION HELPING PUSH TEMPERATURES TO
THE MID 30S IN WESTERN IOWA, TO MID TO UPPER 40S OVER OUR FAR WEST.
WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH AT 25 TO 30 MPH. THE
LIFT PROVIDED BY THE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COMBINED WITH A STREAM
OF H7-H5 PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SOME PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA, PRIMARILY OVER FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WEST-
CENTRAL IOWA. HOWEVER, QUESTIONS REMAIN ON HOW MUCH OF THIS PRECIP,
IF ANY, IS ABLE TO REACH THE SFC.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MID LEVEL SATURATION BUT RAPID DRYING FROM
JUST ABOVE H8 TO THE SFC FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. IF THE COLUMN IS ABLE TO FULLY MOISTEN, TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE COOL ENOUGH IN THE MORNING HOURS TO SUPPORT SNOW.
HOWEVER, AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SWINGS NORTHEAST, FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM NOSE DEVELOPING. WHILE SFC TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY, LOCATIONS IN FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WEST-CENTRAL IOWA
MAY STILL HANG ON TO SUBFREEZING TEMPS FOR A WHILE, SO COULD SEE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN (10-15% CHANCE) IN THOSE
AREAS BEFORE A FULL TRANSITION TO RAIN. AGAIN, LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
MAY HAMPER HOW MUCH, IF ANY, PRECIP IS ABLE TO REACH THE SFC.
HAVE OPTED TO CUT BACK POPS A BIT FROM NEWEST NBM GUIDANCE TO
20-45% FOR THIS FORECAST UPDATE FOR AREAS PRIMARILY NORTH OF
I-80, WHILE THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA INTO WEST-CENTRAL IOWA. POPS ENTER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
AFTER 12Z AND LARGELY EXIT THE AREA BY 00Z. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH LATEST 00Z HREF SUGGESTING ONLY A 10 TO
30% CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 0.1 INCHES NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
VERDIGRE TO PENDER TO RED OAK, IA. THE MOST RECENT 00Z
DETERMINISTIC CAM GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THE MAJORITY OF
SNOWFALL BARELY GRAZING THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR SERVICE
AREA. ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AT A HUNDREDTH OF
AN INCH AT BEST TOO.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH, WHILE THICKNESSES GRADUALLY START TO
INCREASE HELPING TO SET THE STAGE FOR OUR WARMING TREND. HIGHS WARM
TO THE 60S TO LOW 70S OVER OUR FAR WEST, WHILE LOWS COOL TO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
LONG TERM
/THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
1000-500MB THICKNESSES ARE PROGGED TO BUILD AND TRACK EAST INTO MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AREAS. WIDESPREAD 70S ARE IN
STORE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY (FAR SOUTHWEST AREAS MAY HIT
80F), WHILE WIDESPREAD 80S ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
RECORDS AT NORFOLK (81F), LINCOLN (80F), AND OMAHA (78F) COULD BE
BROKEN FRIDAY. THE DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH BREEZY 20 TO 25 MPH
WINDS MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL EJECT SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN
ALBERTA, HELPING SQUASH THE 590DAM HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST US. A
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA HELPING COOL TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE
60S AREAWIDE SUNDAY, AND TO THE 50S FOR MONDAY. POPS FOR THE LONG
TERM PERIOD REMAIN LESS THAN 12% WITH THIS UPDATE SO EXPECT THE DRY
WEATHER TO PERSIST.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 529 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED OVERNIGHT, AND THAT PROCESS
WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH CEILING HEIGHTS LOWERING TO FL040-050
BY 17-18Z BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING THEREAFTER. THERE IS STILL
A 20-30% CHANCE OF A LIGHT WINTRY MIX AT KOFK, AND A 20-30%
CHANCE OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW AT KOMA. AS MENTIONED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, CONFIDENCE IN THOSE WEATHER OCCURRENCES IS
CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS AS OF 10Z WILL STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 13-17 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT EXPECTED FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH
LLWS DEVELOPING AT THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CASTILLO
AVIATION...MEAD
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