900
FXUS63 KOAX 171900
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
200 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND DISSIPATE
THROUGH 5 PM. A FEW ISOLATED SLICK SPOTS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT
WILL HAVE LOW IMPACT TO TRAVEL.
- WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY BE BROKEN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- THE HEAT LATE THIS WEEK WILL ALSO DRIVE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES, INCREASING FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE AREA. SATURDAY
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST AND WINDIEST DAY OF THE
FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
TODAY AND TOMORROW:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON FEATURES SWIRLING HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE CALIFORNIA COAST, UNDERNEATH A MID/UPPER RIDGE
THAT DUMPS OUT INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS BEHIND A DEPARTING
TROUGH. A BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN CONTINUES ITS SPREAD
ACROSS THE BROADER AREA, LOCATED EAST OF A POTENT
DOWNSLOPE/WARM FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. SHORT-TERM MODEL DATA HAS
BEEN UNDER-DOING THE STRENGTH OF THE LIFT ACROSS THE AREA,
WHERE VISIBILITIES HAVE FALLEN TO 1-3 MILES AT TIMES AND A TRACE
OF SNOW HAS FALLEN. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SNOW, MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT SOME SLEET/FREEZING COULD TAKE THE PLACE
OF SNOW AS IT DISSIPATES FOR AN HOUR OR TWO, BUT THIS SO FAR
HAS NOT MATERIALIZED. OVERALL SNOWFALL CHANCES ARE AT THEIR PEAK
NOW THROUGH 4 PM, MAKING ANY VISIBILITY/ROAD IMPACTS LIMITED TO
NON-EXISTENT DURING RUSH HOUR. THE WARM FRONT TO THE WEST WILL
CONTINUE PUSHING EASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA, HELPING
TEMPERATURES WARM SUBSTANTIALLY AS IT ARRIVES. TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NEBRASKA WHILE THE
NE/IA BORDER AND EASTWARD WILL BE IN THE 30S EARLY THIS EVENING
BEFORE COOLING OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE HREF MEMBERS DO HAVE LOWER
VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT AS WELL ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, CLOSER
TO WHERE THE MAIN WIND SHIFT AND FRONT ARE, WITH A 30% CHANCE OF
IT MATERIALIZING DESPITE STRONG WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE.
FOR TOMORROW, WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE ITS PUSH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA, SENDING TEMPERATURES SOARING PAST AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
IN THE 60S AND EVEN 70S WILL BE AIDED BY INCREASING MID/UPPER
HEIGHTS AS THE NORTHERLY JET STREAK DEPARTS, BEING REPLACES BY
WESTERLIES THAT SOURCE FROM THE BUILDING THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. LATER IN THE EVENING, A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL SHOOT
SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE DAKOTAS, DRAGGING
THROUGH A WEAK FRONT THAT COULD RESULT IN SPRINKLES TO LIGHT
RAIN FOR EXTREME EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO IOWA INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. BEYOND THOSE SPRINKLES, PRECIPITATION WILL BE FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN, SPELLING INCREASING DRYNESS THAT COULD COMPOUND FIRE
DANGER LATER ON.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND:
THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE TO THE WEST FLATTENING OUT AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD, WITH VERY POOR MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION. THE LARGER
THERMAL RIDGE WILL SPREAD EASTWARD, CARRYING WITH IT
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPERATURES THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO MIX
INTO. AS IT CURRENTLY STANDS, POTENTIALLY RECORD HIGHS ARE
FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THAT COULD PUSH WELL INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S FOR SATURDAY BEFORE COOLING SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
WINDS WILL BE THE THING TO WATCH, AS INCREASING SPEEDS WILL
MEAN INCREASING FIRE DANGER AS THE WARM TEMPERATURES DRIVE LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY. AS OF NOW, THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
JUST AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE INCOMING COLD FRONT SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY, WHERE GUSTS COULD EXCEED 30 MPH. AREA LAND MANAGERS,
FARMERS, AND ANYONE WORKING WITH SPARKING EQUIPMENT WILL NEED
TO EXERCISE AN ABUNDANCE OF CAUTION, AS ANY FIRES THAT DO FORM
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN AND FIGHT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 529 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED OVERNIGHT, AND THAT PROCESS
WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH CEILING HEIGHTS LOWERING TO FL040-050
BY 17-18Z BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING THEREAFTER. THERE IS STILL
A 20-30% CHANCE OF A LIGHT WINTRY MIX AT KOFK, AND A 20-30%
CHANCE OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW AT KOMA. AS MENTIONED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, CONFIDENCE IN THOSE WEATHER OCCURRENCES IS
CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS AS OF 10Z WILL STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 13-17 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT EXPECTED FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH
LLWS DEVELOPING AT THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MEAD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page