472
FXUS63 KOAX 180504
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1204 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND STARTS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGHS TODAY REACH
THE 60S TO MID 70S OVER OUR FAR SOUTHWEST WITH A FEW CLOUDS.
- TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE 80S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, AND A FEW RECORDS COULD BE BROKEN.
- AREAS OF VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY, WHILE
EXTREME FIRE DANGER MAY OCCUR IN A FEW SPOTS SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
SHORT TERM
/TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
04Z RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AT H8 REVEALS A WELL DEFINED BAROCLINIC
ZONE JUST EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THE ATTENDANT WARM
ADVECTION FROM H7-H8 HAS LED TO SOME BROAD LIFT OVER SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA WHERE THE 88D IS SHOWING LIGHT
REFLECTIVITY ECHOES. LATEST METAR OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLOUD BASES
AT AROUND 10KFT WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE SIGNIFICANT DRY
AIR BELOW THAT HEIGHT. SO, NOT REALLY EXPECTING THIS PRECIP TO
REACH THE SFC. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM PARTICULARLY OVER OUR
FAR WEST WITH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 40S, WHILE EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER TEMPS HAVE REMAINED IN UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
EXPECT HIGHS TODAY TO SOAR TO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S AS THE 1000-
500MB RIDGE INCHES CLOSER TO THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. LATER THIS EVENING, AN H5 WAVE WILL TRACK
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS IN TANDEM WITH A WEAK SFC LOW. THIS SHOULD HELP
SWITCH OUR WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AS THE SFC COLD FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH. 00Z CAM GUIDANCE TRIES TO SPIT OUT SOME LIGHT
REFLECTIVITY OVER OUR FAR NORTH AND EAST, BUT DRY AIR BELOW 10KFT
WILL WIN ONCE AGAIN, SO EXPECT THE DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. LOWS
TONIGHT COOL TO THE MID 30S IN WESTERN IOWA AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA,
WHILE 40S ARE FORECAST OVER OUR SOUTH.
THE WEAK FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT AS ON THURSDAY WE SEE EVEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER
70S OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA, WHILE SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S CAN BE EXPECTED IN WEST-CENTRAL IOWA. EXPECT DRY AND SUNNY
CONDITIONS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH LIGHT
WINDS. LOWS REMAIN MILD WITH MOST AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
LONG TERM
/FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE WARMTH WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY AS THE 1000-500MB RIDGE KEEPS PUSHING EAST. FRIDAY WILL SEE
HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE LATEST NBM SHOWING
HIGHS POTENTIALLY BEING BROKEN AT OMAHA AND LINCOLN. THE WARMEST DAY
OF THE LONG TERM IS SATURDAY AS MOST AREAS REACH THE MID TO UPPER
80S. WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH COMBINED WITH THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER
FRIDAY OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA. SATURDAY COULD SEE A FEW HOURS IN THE
AFTERNOON REACHING THE EXTREME CATEGORY PARTICULARLY IN OUR WESTERN
SERVICE AREAS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE SUNDAY AS A SFC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. MODEL GUIDANCE THEREAFTER SHOWS MUCH
OF THE AREA IN EITHER ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW SOME SHORTWAVES TO TRAVERSE THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MONDAY
MORNING APPEARS TO BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER
OUR FAR WEST, BUT CHANCES REMAIN SLIM AT 15% OR LESS AT THIS
TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE FL120. A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTH WINDS
SWITCHING TO WEST. WEST WINDS WILL APPROACH 12 KT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING BY EVENING. LLWS WILL CONTINUE AT
KOMA AND KLNK THROUGH 08Z.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CASTILLO
AVIATION...MEAD
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