565
FXUS63 KOAX 192320
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
620 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGHS TODAY REACH THE LOW 70S AND 80S.
- TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE 80S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, AND A FEW RECORDS COULD BE BROKEN.
- AREAS OF VERY HIGH TO POTENTIALLY EXTREME FIRE DANGER ARE
FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, DRIVEN
MAINLY BY DRY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
TODAY:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON FEATURES THE PERSISTENT
MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS, WITH
HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND SHUFFLE
AWAY THE EXITING TROUGH TO THE EAST. DRILLING DOWN TO THE
SURFACE, ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH/EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED
EAST OF THE AREA INTO WEST- CENTRAL IOWA, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO SOAR WELL INTO THE MID-TO- UPPER 70S ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON.
THOUGH WE HAVE WARMED QUITE A BIT TODAY, DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S
AND 40S HAVE CONTINUED TO STICK AROUND, KEEPING HUMIDITY VALUES
FROM FALLING TOO FAR BELOW 25-35% WHILE VERY LIGHT WINDS KEEP
THE OVERALL FIRE DANGER IN THE HIGH/VERY HIGH RANGE. WINDS WILL
WAVER SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT WHILE STAYING CALM, AND TEMPERATURES
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY:
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE THE TWO DAYS TO WATCH, WHERE DRYING
CONDITIONS AND RECORD-BREAKING (OR AT LEAST NEARLY SO) TEMPERATURES
HEADLINE THE MESSAGE OF THE FORECAST. THE MID/UPPER PATTERN ALONG
WITH THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL SPREAD EASTWARD,
ALLOWING A GOOD WESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE WIND DIRECTIONS TO
ACCENTUATE THE WARMING AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS AREA-WIDE ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH INTO THE 80S FRIDAY, WITH OMAHA AND LINCOLN CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BREAK THEIR RECORDS (78 AND 80 RESPECTIVELY), WHILE KOFK
STAYS JUST UNDER THEIRS. DEEP MIXING WILL CONTINUE DURING THE LATE
MORNINGS AND AFTERNOONS, HELPING TO BRING DRY AIR FROM ALOFT DOWN TO
THE SURFACE AND LOWER DEWPOINTS. AS A RESULT, VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER
IS FORECAST FRIDAY AS WE CONTINUE FORWARD WITH EXTREMELY DRY FUELS,
THOUGH THE OVERALL DANGER IS LIMITED BY GENTLE WINDS.
BY SATURDAY, THE DRIEST CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WHERE HUMIDITY
VALUES DROP DOWN INTO THE 14-24% RANGE THANKS TO THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR SO FAR. HIGHS ARE SET TO PUSH INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND EVEN LOW 90S AND POTENTIALLY BREAK RECORDS FOR THE
SECOND DAY IN A ROW. THERE ARE ONLY A HANDFUL OF DAYS WHERE
OMAHA, LINCOLN, OR NORFOLK HAVE REACHED THE 90 DEGREE MARK IN
MARCH, LET ALONE THIS EARLY. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS
WELL, AS THEY MIX INTO SOMEWHAT BREEZY WINDS ALOFT AND GUST TO
20-30 MPH AT THE SURFACE. VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER IS
FORECAST FOR THE AREA, WITH ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA JOINING THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE IN A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FROM 11 AM TO 3 AM SUNDAY. AS OF NOW, THE WINDS MAY BE A
BIT TOO LIGHT TO SEE THE WHOLE WATCH BE TURNED INTO A WARNING,
BUT THE FORECAST COME INTO FOCUS MORE AS WE APPROACH THE PERIOD.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND...
A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL RIPPLE THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE
SOUTH, AS GUSTY NORTH WINDS OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW 60S SUNDAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AROUND 25 TO 40 PERCENT. WHILE THIS COMBINATION MAY HELP
IMPROVE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO SOME EXTENT, NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35+ MPH SUNDAY MORNING, KEEPING
PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA IN THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ALTHOUGH A GLANCING BLOW FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIPPLING
THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ISN'T TOTALLY OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY. WHILE TEMPERATURES MAY TAKE A BRIEF DIP BEHIND SUNDAY'S
COLD FRONT, WE SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN FACT, SOME SOLUTIONS ARE BEGINNING TO POINT
AT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF INCREASED FIRE DANGER BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT, BUT PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE SOUTH
AT OMA/LNK AND WEST AT OFK...SWITCHING OUT OF THE NORTH AROUND
SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. WILL BE NEAR LLWS CRITERIA AT OMA/LNK
BETWEEN 09 AND 13Z AS WINDS 1000 FEET AGL INCREASE TO 30+ KTS
OUT OF THE WEST.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-
065>068-078-088>093.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KG/PETERSEN
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH
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