894
FXUS63 KOAX 201041
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
541 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AGAIN ON FRIDAY, AND EVEN WARMER ON
SATURDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA, AND THE CURRENT FORECAST IS NEAR OR
EXCEEDING RECORD TEMPERATURES AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS.
- VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE STRONGEST COMBINATION OF VERY DRY AIR AND GUSTY
WINDS IS LIKELY TO OCCUR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
THURSDAY WAS QUITE THE BEAUTIFUL SPRING DAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES OVERPERFORMED A LOT OF
GUIDANCE, AND SEE REASON FOR THAT TREND TO CONTINUE IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, EVEN AS REMARKABLY WARM AS SOME OF THAT GUIDANCE IS.
THERE'S BEEN SOME WARM ADVECTION ALOFT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, AND
NOW WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ABOUT TO
PASS TO OUR NORTH, FLATTENING THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY LATER TODAY. THIS
WILL TURN WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH, BUT THE FRONT IS NOT A TRUE COLD
FRONT AS MUCH AS IT IS A WIND SHIFT AS THE ORIENTATION OF THE POST-
FRONTAL ADVECTION QUICKLY BRINGS WARMER AIR ALOFT THAN EVEN
YESTERDAY. SO EXPECT PLENTY OF WARMING THROUGH THE DAY AND MIXING
INTO THE EML BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING HIGH TEMPS INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 80S AND RH INTO THE TEENS IN MANY OF OUR NEBRASKA
COUNTIES. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WINDS SHOULD BEHAVE TODAY, BUT
ESPECIALLY AREAS WEST OF A FAIRBURY TO LINCOLN TO TEKAMAH LINE COULD
HAVE GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH, AND PERHAPS AN OCCASIONAL GUST HIGHER THAN
THAT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER, BUT DOESN'T APPEAR LIKELY TO BE ENOUGH WIND TO WARRANT A RED
FLAG AT THIS TIME.
SATURDAY FIRE WEATHER AND HEAT...
EARLY ON SATURDAY, 850 HPA TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR AT +16 TO +20C WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS WARM AIRMASS IS ALSO VERY
DRY THROUGHOUT THE DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE SO LITTLE TO NO CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED, EVEN IN THE MID/UPPER TROP. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
VERY CONSISTENT THAT DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE EXTREMELY EFFICIENT,
FULLY MIXING OUT THE MORNING BOUNDARY LAYER AND REALIZING DRY
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES DOWN TO THE SURFACE FROM THE WARM LAYER ABOVE.
IT MAY TAKE A WHILE TO DO THIS, AND DURING THAT WARMING PHASE DO NOT
EXPECT WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 15-20 MPH OR SO. HOWEVER, AS WE GET
PAST 2 PM AND CLOSER TO 4 PM, IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT
WE'LL MIX OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER INTO THE VERY DRY STEEP LAPSE RATES
ABOVE. WIND FIELDS ARE ALSO STRONGER IN THIS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER,
SO INCREASED SUSTAINED WINDS WITH INCREASED WESTERLY GUSTS WILL ALSO
BEGIN AT THAT TIME. IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASSESS JUST HOW STRONG THE
WINDS WILL BE. AT THIS TIME HAVE INCREASED SUSTAINED AND GUST SPEEDS
INTO THE UPPER QUARTILE OF MODEL GUIDANCE, BUT THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR INFREQUENT STRONGER GUSTS OF PERHAPS 30 KTS AT TIMES
AS MEAN WINDS IN THE WELL-MIXED 5-10K FOOT AGL LAYER ARE AROUND 34
KTS. THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AT LEAST DOWN INTO THE LOW TEENS. IT'S
WORTH NOTING THAT THIS SCENARIO FITS THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR
REALITY TO BE NEAR THE MINIMUM MODEL GUIDANCE FOR RH, NEAR THE
MAXIMUM FOR TEMPERATURES, AND CLOSE TO THE UPPER END FOR WINDS. HRRR
AND RAP ARE THE VERY LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR RH, AS THEY OFTEN ARE
ON DRY DAYS, WITH RH DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN WESTERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND, WILL CONTINUE
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME. THE WIND SPEED FORECAST IS
BORDERLINE FOR LOCAL CRITERIA, BUT THE RH IS WELL BELOW STANDARD
CRITERIA, FUELS ARE TOTALLY CURED AND QUITE DRY EVEN AFTER RECENT
SNOW, AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO OVERPERFORM THE
CURRENT FORECAST. WITH THESE CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
90S, IT WILL PROBABLY BE A RATHER VOLATILE FIRE WEATHER SCENARIO.
SPEAKING OF THOSE TEMPERATURES, THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS WOULD
BREAK OR TIE EXISTING RECORDS SET IN 1907 AT OMAHA, LINCOLN, AND
NORFOLK. IT WILL ALSO BE IN THE DISCUSSION FOR WARMEST EVER MARCH
TEMPERATURES.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND:
SUNDAY FEATURES A STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH A GREATER MERIDIONAL
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS AND COOL ADVECTION. EVEN WITH A 30 DEGREE
COOL DOWN, SUNDAY'S TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN LAST
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO UPPER 60S SOUTH. POST-
FRONTAL WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY, WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT, AND RH WILL DROP INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE, LEADING TO AT LEAST VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER, EVEN
WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES. IF WINDS ARE STRONGER OR RH A BIT
LOWER, COULD APPROACH RED FLAG ON SUNDAY AS WELL.
MONDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL REALLY BE
QUITE PLEASANT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
FEATURES ANOTHER WARMING TREND, WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER
COOL FRONT REACHING THE AREA LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE QUITE LOW.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 539 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. CALM NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST, WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF WINDS REACHING 12 KTS POSSIBLE AT KOFK THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A FEW
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING BY. CALM WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY LATER THIS EVENING.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-
065>068-078-088>093.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...WOOD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page