912
FXUS63 KOAX 210420
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1120 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AGAIN ON FRIDAY, AND EVEN WARMER ON
SATURDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA, AND THE CURRENT FORECAST IS EXCEEDING
RECORD TEMPERATURES AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS.
- VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE STRONGEST COMBINATION OF VERY DRY AIR AND GUSTY
WINDS IS LIKELY TO OCCUR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING.
- STRONG WINDS FOLLOW SATURDAY'S HEAT, WITH NORTHERLY GUSTS
INCREASING TO 30-40 MPH SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
TODAY:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO SHOW THE DOMINATING
HIGH PRESSURE MID/UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS THAT HAS BEEN DRIVING EXTREMELY WARM AND INCREASINGLY DRY
CONDITIONS OVER GREAT PLAINS. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE HAVE
ALREADY PUSHED INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 70S AND EVEN LOWER 80S TODAY,
WITH IT ONLY BEING A MATTER OF TIME WHEN WE SHATTER RECORDS THE 78-
81 DEGREE RECORDS AT OMAHA, LINCOLN, AND NORFOLK. WINDS HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY SO FAR TODAY, KEEPING RELATIVELY GENTLE
SPEEDS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. ALONG THE SAME LINE OF THINKING,
THE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 30S TODAY HAVE
LIMITED FIRE DANGER TO VERY HIGH. EXTREMELY DRY AIR IS IN PLACE
ALOFT, WHICH CONTINUES MIX TO THE SURFACE AND DROP DEWPOINTS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR TOMORROW'S FORECAST.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY:
THE MAIN CONCERN OF THE FORECAST DEVELOPS SATURDAY, HEADLINED
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER AND BY HEAT THAT HAS ONLY OCCURRED A
HANDFUL OF TIMES IN MARCH. BY SATURDAY MORNING, THE LOW-LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN STICKING JUST WEST OF THE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO BROADEN AND SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. AT THE SAME TIME, FORECAST SOUNDINGS QUICKLY DEVELOP A
BONE-DRY AND WELL-MIXED CHARACTER, TRANSLATING THAT HEAT DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. DEWPOINTS WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
THROUGHOUT THE VERTICAL COLUMN, PUSHING HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE
TEENS AND POTENTIALLY SINGLE DIGITS. RECENT COLLABORATION WITH
LOCAL FUEL EXPERTS REVEALS PARTICULARLY DRY CONDITIONS BOTH IN
THE SHORT-TERM/GRASSY FUELS AND THE LONGER- BURNING TREES. THE
WINDS THAT WE WILL BE MIXING INTO WON'T BE OVERLY STRONG (UP TO
30 KTS), BUT PERIODIC GUSTS TO 20-30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON
WILL BE ENOUGH WITH THE CRITICALLY DRY CONDITIONS TO RESULT IN
EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.
AFTER HIGHS PEAK IN THE 90S AREA-WIDE (WHICH WOULD SET RECORDS FOR
THE SECOND STRAIGHT DAY), TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO SLOWLY DECREASE
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND HELP HUMIDITY VALUES SLOWLY RECOVER.
AFTER 10 PM, A FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA, BRINGING
WITH IT GUSTY WINDS THAT WILL REACH 30-40 MPH INTO EARLY SUNDAY. AS
OF NOW, THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING THAT EXTENDS INTO IOWA LASTS
UNTIL 4 AM EARLY SUNDAY, BUT COULD BE DRAWN OUT FURTHER IF FIRE
ACTIVITY OVER-PERFORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THOSE WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY, FUNNELING IN COOLER AIR THAT WILL LIMIT
HIGHS TO THE 50S AND 60S, BUT STILL WELL-ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.
MONDAY AND BEYOND:
BY MONDAY, MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT THE COOLER WINDS INTO
THE AREA SUNDAY WILL HAVE LARGELY FLATTENED THE RIDGE TO THE WEST
(THOUGH A LESSER FORM OF IT WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK). WE'LL SEE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO STAY ABOVE-AVERAGE
(WHICH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS IN THE UPPER 50S), AND LIMITED
CHANCES FOR RAIN, THOUGHT THEY WON'T NECESSARILY BE ZERO.
ANOTHER DAY INTO THE 70S AND 80S LOOKS LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY
NEXT WEEK, WHERE THE ABSENCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO LOOM OVER
THE AREA AND KEEP FIRE DANGER AT THE FOREFRONT OF THE FORECAST.
THAT AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL FEATURE ANOTHER WEAK FRONT THAT
COULD BRING TRACE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA, WHICH IS NOT
MUCH BUT MORE THAT WHAT WE'VE SEEN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. CALM SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED REACH 12 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS
IN THE 20-23 KT RANGE. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR, WITH A
FEW HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING BY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-
088>093.
IA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.
DISCUSSION...PETERSEN
AVIATION...WOOD
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