151
FXUS63 KOAX 210450
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1150 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA, WITH CURRENT FORECAST IS EXCEEDING RECORD TEMPERATURES
AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS.
- VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE STRONGEST COMBINATION OF VERY DRY AIR AND GUSTY
WINDS IS LIKELY TO OCCUR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING.
- STRONG WINDS FOLLOW SATURDAY'S HEAT, WITH NORTHERLY GUSTS
INCREASING TO 35-45 MPH SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST CONTINUED TO
INCH EASTWARD TODAY, PUSHING WARMER AIR INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES SOARED INTO THE MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON, SHATTERING
RECORDS AT OMAHA, LINCOLN, AND NORFOLK BY A SOLID 4 TO 9 DEGREES.
LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BEFORE INCREASING
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING.
THE THERMAL RIDGE SITTING JUST TO OUR WEST WILL SHIFT EAST AS IT
BROADENS AND INTENSIFIES SATURDAY, BRINGING UNPRECEDENTED HEAT TO
THE FORECAST AREA, FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S TOMORROW, BREAKING NOT ONLY DAILY RECORDS,
BUT LIKELY BECOMING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES EVER REACHED IN THE
MONTH OF MARCH OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWESTERN IOWA.
MORE DISTRESSING THAN THE HEAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME
FIRE DANGER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE POTENTIAL FOR
EXCESSIVELY DRY, HOT AIR ALOFT TO MIX DOWN THE SURFACE. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO 10-15%, WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY DRYING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH
WINDS MAY FALL JUST SHORT OF TRADITIONAL RED FLAG CRITERIA FOR MOST
OF THE AREA SATURDAY, RECENT COLLABORATION WITH LOCAL FIRE PARTNERS
REVEALS THAT THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES WITH EXCESSIVELY
DRY FUELS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR, EVEN
WITH THE MARGINALLY STRONG WINDS.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL PLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, BRINGING AN ABRUPT
NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AND STRONG GUSTS TO THE REGION. GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 35-45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE,
DROPPING SLIGHTLY TO 25-35 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY. WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING FIRES TO BECOME EVEN MORE UNCONTROLLABLE
SATURDAY NIGHT, A RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM
SATURDAY TO 4 AM SUNDAY.
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT, SQUASHING THE THERMAL
RIDGE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S, STILL WARMER THAN THE LOW TO MID 50S THAT ARE TYPICAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. A FEW CAMS HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SPARSE SHOWERS
OR SPRINKLES TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER, THESE WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE SURFACE.
MONDAY AND BEYOND...
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RISE FROM THE 50S AND 60S ON
MONDAY INTO THE 60S AND 70S TUESDAY.
THE HEAT AND STRONG WINDS CRANK BACK UP BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
AS A RIDGE REDEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. HIGHS PUSH BACK
INTO THE 70S AND 80S BY WEDNESDAY. IN SIMILAR FASHION TO THE
PREVIOUS WEEKEND, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT. WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE
FORECAST, FIRE DANGER WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME A CONCERN.
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP SLIGHTLY AGAIN BEHIND THE PASSING FRONT, YET
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. CALM SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED REACH 12 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS
IN THE 20-23 KT RANGE. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR, WITH A
FEW HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING BY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-
088>093.
IA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.
DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...WOOD
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