955
FXUS63 KOAX 212331
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
631 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER CONTINUES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY.
- A COLD FRONT SUNDAY MORNING BRINGS NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 35
TO 45 MPH. WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ANOTHER WARMING TREND THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNLIKELY
AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
RECORD WARMTH REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THIS RECORD-
WARMTH IS SUPPORTED BY A MASSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S ARE LIKELY TO BREAK A
SLEW OF RECORDS FROM 1907 ACROSS THE AREA. ON TOP OF THE HOT
CONDITIONS, IT IS GOING TO BE EXCEPTIONALLY DRY WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS BY MID-AFTERNOON.
AS A RESULT, A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THANKFULLY, THIS LEVEL OF HEAT
IS SHORT-LIVED WITH A COLD FRONT ANTICIPATED DURING THE MORNING
HOURS ON SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE STRONG WITH NORTHERLY WIND
GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE. WIND
SPEEDS GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON
SUNDAY. SUNDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 30 TO NEARLY
40 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY, DESPITE THIS SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE,
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
NEXT WEEK
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM ONCE AGAIN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES CLIMB A DEGREE OR
TWO ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 ON TUESDAY
BEFORE CLIMBING FURTHER INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 BY WEDNESDAY.
ALONGSIDE THIS HEAT, DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN. THIS
MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE AREA. A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO DECREASE TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY BEFORE
TEMPERATURES FALL FURTHER ON FRIDAY. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES MAY
LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND BEHIND THIS SECOND COLD FRONT. OVERALL, THE
FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY DRY. WHILE THERE MAY BE A LOW CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR TWO WITH THE PASSING FRONTS, IT IS UNLIKELY THAT ANYONE
WILL SEE ANYTHING MEANINGFUL. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED AT ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND
WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS REMAIN
GUSTY AT 20 TO 25 KTS AT KOFK AND KLNK, BUT THESE SHOULD SUBSIDE
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL OVERSPREAD
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY 02Z, RESULTING IN LLWS AT KOMA
AND KLNK. A STRONG FRONT MOVES IN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER 07Z
RESULTING IN NORTHERLY WIND SPEEDS OF 12 TO 20 KTS AND GUSTS OF
25 TO 35 KTS AFFECTING TERMINALS. THE GUSTY WINDS PERSIST FOR
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON.
MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST AT LEAST A LOW 10-20% CHANCE FOR A
BRIEF DIP TO MVFR CEILINGS AT KOFK FROM 15-17Z. HAVE LEFT OUT
OF TAF FOR THIS ISSUANCE GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-
030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-
079-080-090-091.
DISCUSSION...CHEHAK
AVIATION...CASTILLO
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