014
FXUS63 KOAX 240415
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1115 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGHS REACH THE 50S TODAY. MID 60S TO LOW 70S RETURN FOR
TUESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
- VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER RETURNS TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS DO WARMER TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY WILL SEE GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH. NEXT BEST CHANCE (15-30%) FOR
PRECIPITATION RETURNS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIPPLED THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TODAY. BY NOON, RADAR RETURNS COULD BE SEEN IN A BROKEN LINE
ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA. THE 18Z OAX SOUNDING IS IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE RAP AND HRRR FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A RATHER LARGE
AMOUNT OF DRY AIR BELOW THESE SHOWERS FOR RAINDROPS TO CONTEND
WITH. EVAPORATION APPEARS TO BE WINNING OUT FOR THE MOST PART,
AS NO NOTABLE PRECIPITATION HAS MANGED TO REACH THE SURFACE.
POPS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10-15% THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS BAND
ADVANCES EASTWARD, INDICATING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW
SPRINKLES TO REACH THE GROUND.
BY NOON, MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
HAD WARMED INTO THE LOWER 40S. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL HELP
MAINTAIN NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AS
HIGHS TODAY TOP OUT IN THE LOW 50S.
A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TUESDAY,
BRINGING WARM SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
A THERMAL RIDGE WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER
BURST OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW 80S OVER WESTERN IOWA AND NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA, WITH THE UPPER 80S AND PERHAPS A FEW 90S POSSIBLE NEAR THE
NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER. WHILE WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT, AROUND 5-
10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 15-20 MPH, WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING TO 20-30%
WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER
CONDITIONS, WEDNESDAY.
FIRE DANGER CONCERNS RAMP UP ALONG WITH THE WINDS ON THURSDAY. A
MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY
LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 60S IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BUT 70S-80S WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE.
MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY SPLIT ON WHETHER OR NOT PRECIP WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW, WE WILL MAINTAIN A
15-20% CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY. IF DRY CONDITIONS DO
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL, VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER CAN BE
EXPECTED.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...
RAIN/SNOW CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY (15-30%), AS
COOLER AIR ADVANCES SOUTHWARD. OVERALL, LIMITED MOISTURE AND
WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES SUGGEST LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MAY BE LIMITED TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S,
HOWEVER THIS COOLDOWN WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND
AND SHIFT EASTWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO REBOUND INTO THE 60S SATURDAY, AND REACH THE 70S ON SUNDAY, INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING, THIS WILL
LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR ADDITIONAL FIRE DANGER CONCERNS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. CALM SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BEFORE CLIMBING INTO THE 12-15 KT RANGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, A BROKEN TO OVERCAST DECK OF MID- AND HIGH-
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PASS BY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...WOOD
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