921
FXUS63 KOAX 240446
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1146 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGHS WARM TO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S TODAY UNDER PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
- DRY AND WARM WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90F IN
OUR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
RESULT IN VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER.
- VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER EXPECTED AREAWIDE THURSDAY WITH
NORTHERLY GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ALONG AND BEHIND A FRONT. THERE
IS A LOW 15 TO 30% CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY, CHANGING
TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
SHORT TERM
/TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
04Z RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAKENING H5 SHORTWAVE TROF
EXITING THE AREA. A BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK STILL
REMAINS OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY BUT SHOULD ALSO EXIT WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
TODAY WILL SEE AN H8 BAROCLINIC ZONE LIFT THROUGH THE AREA. ANOTHER
WEAK H5 DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND WORK
IN TANDEM WITH THE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TO GENERATE SOME CLOUD
COVER. SIMILAR TO MONDAY, A FEW CAMS DEVELOP VERY LIGHT REFLECTIVITY
NEAR THE MID LEVEL FEATURE, BUT THE LOWEST 4-5 KM TO THE SFC SHOW
QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR PER SOUNDINGS SO SHOULD JUST SEE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS WARM TO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN OUR FAR WEST. LOWS COOL TO THE 40S.
BY WEDNESDAY, SHOULD SEE A LARGER CHUNK OF THE 1000-500 MB THERMAL
RIDGE PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA, RAISING TEMPERATURES TO THE 80S
AREAWIDE. LOCATIONS ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER MAY REACH 90F. WHILE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 10-15 MPH, THE WARM TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH RH OF 19 TO 25% WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER, PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
REMAIN WARM IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
LONG TERM
/THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THURSDAY WILL SEE MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN SET UP AT H5 AS A
STRONGER WAVE FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN EJECTS EAST SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. A SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT ARE PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS. SHOULD SEE HIGHS REACH THE MID 60S IN OUR FAR
NORTHWEST WHILE THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S ARE REACHED OVER OUR FAR
SOUTHEAST AREAS BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES. ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT, THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE CAA SHOULD HELP TRANSFER SOME GUSTY
30 TO 35KTS OF MOMENTUM TO THE SFC. THIS COMBINED WITH THE CURED
FUELS AND OVERALL DRY PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER.
ANOTHER THING TO MONITOR WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM ALBION TO WAYNE
WHERE H8-H7 WAA SETS UP, WHICH MAY LIMIT TO AN EXTENT SOME OF
THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT. WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE, CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD STILL EXISTS AMONGST GUIDANCE ON IF WE'LL SEE LIGHT
RAIN. FOR NOW, HAVE KEPT THE LOW NBM POPS OF 15 TO 30% IN THOSE
AREAS.
BY LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WILL SEE CONTINUED 15 TO
30% CHANCES FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
80. HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ONLY WARM TO THE 50S BEHIND THE FRONT.
FOR THE WEEKEND, SHOULD SEE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND AS HIGHS SATURDAY REACH THE 60S, WHILE 70S ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH MOST AREAS SEEING
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S. AREAS OF VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER APPEAR
PROBABLE GIVEN THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THOSE DAYS. LATE MONDAY,
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOUTHWESTERLY H5 FLOW RETURNING TO THE AREA AS THE
H5 RIDGE PUSHES EAST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. AS SUCH, WILL SEE A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH RESULTING IN POPS OF 25 TO 45%
FOR RAIN AND EVEN SOME THUNDER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. CALM SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BEFORE CLIMBING INTO THE 12-15 KT RANGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, A BROKEN TO OVERCAST DECK OF MID- AND HIGH-
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PASS BY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CASTILLO
AVIATION...WOOD
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