206
FXUS63 KOAX 242327
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
627 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. RAIN AND POSSIBLY A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.
- AFTER A COOL DOWN TO END THE WEEK, TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE
70S AND 80S OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD COVER OVER WESTERN IOWA AND
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS HAS CONTRIBUTED A BIT IN KEEPING
TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER EARLIER IN THE DAY. EXPECT A WARMER AFTERNOON
THAN YESTERDAY WITH EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE MILD SIDE, FALLING INTO THE 40S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND BAJA
PENINSULA WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE GREAT PLAINS.
EXPECT A SUMMER-LIKE DAY AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE 80S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS. AREAS AROUND AND SOUTH OF BEATRICE MAY BREAK INTO THE LOW
90S. ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING, PARTICULARLY FOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL FALL INTO THE MID-TEENS TO MID-20S FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. WINDS WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, STARTING OUT AROUND 5-15 MPH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 5-10 MPH
IN THE AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
VEGETATION REMAINS DRY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM, SO
DESPITE THE LIGHTER WINDS, DON'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY. THURSDAY IS A DAY TO WATCH AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS MOVING
INTO NEBRASKA FROM THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND 70S FOR AREAS NORTH OF
I-80, WITH UPPER 70S TO MID-80S FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 TO THE
NEBRASKA/KANSAS/IOWA BORDER. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE
MID-20S TO MID-30S ACROSS THE REGION. A CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED SPEED
OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN COULD RESULT IN A CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE
AND RH VALUES. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE MORNING AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS
GUSTING TO 25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE; HOWEVER, WITH THE FRONT
COMING THROUGH, THIS COULD CAUSE RH VALUES TO RISE. SHOULD ANY FIRES
SPARK BEFORE THE FRONT COMES THROUGH, THERE COULD BE SOME PROBLEMS
WITH FIRES SPREADING RAPIDLY DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND DRY FUELS.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LOW-END POPS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. TOWARD THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA/MISSOURI/IOWA BORDER WHERE
INSTABILITY IS BETTER, THERE COULD BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING, AS TEMPERATURES FALL, A FEW AREAS ABLE TO GET
PRECIPITATION MAY HAVE A LITTLE RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
FRIDAY BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH OUT
OF THE REGION. EXPECTED HIGHS WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE 50S WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
SATURDAY INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK, A RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE
ROCKIES, GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO THE 70S ON SUNDAY AND 80S ON MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF CYCLE WITH
ONLY A FEW MID TO HIGH BASED CLOUDS. SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME
UNDER 12 KTS AFTER SUNSET AND SLOWLY TURN CLOCKWISE TO
SOUTHERLY BY 07Z. WILL SEE A PERIOD OF LLWS DEVELOP AT ALL THREE
TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT TO 14Z. A WIND SHIFT OCCURS BY THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, TURNING WINDS TO WEST
NORTHWEST BUT REMAINING UNDER 12 KTS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...CASTILLO
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