233
FXUS63 KOAX 252331
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
631 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S, WHILE A FEW 90S ARE EXPECTED
NEAR THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER. VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IS
EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA.
- FIRE WEATHER WATCH HOISTED FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA THURSDAY
FOR VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER DRIVEN BY STRONG WINDS OF
25 TO 30 MPH, GUSTING UP TO 40 MPH, WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT.
- TEMPERATURES REBOUND BEHIND THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND WITH VERY
HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER EXPECTED, PARTICULARLY SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW AND MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW WARM AIR ADVECTION TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW 80S
OVER WESTERN IOWA AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, WITH THE UPPER 80S AND
PERHAPS A FEW 90S POSSIBLE NEAR THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON. PATCHY CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON HELPED LIMIT MIXING,
KEEPING WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT, AROUND 5-10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 15-20
MPH. HOWEVER, THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING TO 15-30% PRODUCED AREAS
OF VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE REGION.
ONCE AGAIN, FIRE DANGER CONCERNS RAMP UP ALONG WITH THE WINDS ON
THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL SWING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 60S IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BUT 70S-80S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA THURSDAY MORNING,
REACHING SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. LIKEWISE,
COOLER NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STREAM INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT,
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE. WHILE MINIMUM RH WILL BE HIGHER
THAN TODAY, AT 25 TO 40%, WE SHOULD STILL SEE A WIDESPREAD VERY HIGH
TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER THREAT RESULTING FROM THE STRONG WINDS AND
THE CURED FUELS. FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL LIKELY BE AT GREATEST
RISK FOR UNCONTROLLABLE FIRES, WHERE RH WILL BE LOWEST, TEMPERATURES
WILL BE HIGHEST, AND POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR THIS REGION FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
CAMS INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
THURSDAY, HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DRY
AIR FOR PRECIPITATION TO CONTEND WITH IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
THEREFORE, POPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED TO 15-20% THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
COOLER AIR WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT, DROPPING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 20S OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND MID 30S ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-80. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL LIKELY REMAIN RAIN
AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH, ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOWFLAKES CAN'T BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, WITH THE WARM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND VERY LIMITED MOISTURE, LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED.
LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST AREA EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING, AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AS
NORTHERLY FLOW DRIVES COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT.
SATURDAY AND BEYOND...
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST BY SATURDAY, ALLOWING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO RETURN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS.
GUSTY WINDS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE, REACHING SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH,
GUSTING TO 35 MPH. HIGHS WARM BACK INTO THE 60S BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS, WARM TEMPERATURES AND RH
OF 15 TO 20% WILL ONCE AGAIN YIELD VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER
CONDITIONS.
FIRE DANGER THREATS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY, AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
THE 70S AND BREEZY, DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
WARM THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
REACH THE 80S. A PATTERN CHANGE LOOKS PROBABLE EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE COUNTRY. PERIODIC 30-50% POPS
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPECKLE THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FAVORED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PASSING MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 3000-4000 FT AGL
MOVING TOWARD OFK BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR INTO THURSDAY MORNING (SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF
45 KTS AROUND 1500 FT AGL). WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT AND BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY, WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS TO START
AND 30-35 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE
OUT SOME SMOKE FROM FIRES IN KANSAS LEADING TO DECREASED
VISIBILITY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
HIGHEST SMOKE CONCENTRATIONS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF
SITES, WITH ANYTHING CLEARING OUT AS THE WINDS SHIFT.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ078-088>093.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...CA
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