497
FXUS63 KOAX 260442
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1142 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY, WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY AND
GUSTING 35 TO 45 MPH. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED NEAR
THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER.
- VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND WILL BE PARTICULARLY HIGH ON SATURDAY.
- COOLER ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. 60S RETURN SATURDAY,
FOLLOWED BY 70S AND 80S INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK, WITH A 40-60% CHANCE BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
PRETTY QUIET ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AS WE REMAINED ON
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. A SURFACE
FRONT/WIND SHIFT PASSED THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND WILL PUSH
BACK NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
INCREASING WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER WY/MT AND THE
DAKOTAS THAT WILL CRASH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY MID-
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A TRICKY HIGH TEMPERATURE AND
RH/WIND WITH SOME FAIRLY LARGE IMPLICATIONS ON FIRE WEATHER.
CURRENTLY, TEMPERATURES NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-80 ARE FAVORED TO
TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S PRIOR TO THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH, WHILE AREAS TO THE NORTH WILL SEE COLD AIR START TO
SPILL IN EARLIER AND TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S TO MID
70S FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RH ALSO LOOKS TO DROP TOWARD
THE MID 20S IN SOUTHEAST NE. REGARDING WINDS, EXPECT 25-30 MPH
GUSTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, FOLLOWED BY A
LITTLE BIT OF A LULL NEAR THE FRONT, AND THEN A PUNCH OF 35-40
MPH GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING 40+ KTS IN THE MIXED LAYER. REGARDING
FIRE WEATHER WATCH/RED FLAG WARNING, THE LOWEST RH DOES NOT LOOK
TO OVERLAP WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS FOR VERY LONG, IF AT ALL,
BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR 40 MPH GUSTS BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE
EVENING, PLUS JUST THE WIND SHIFT IN GENERAL DO YIELD FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS, SO ELECTED TO CONVERT MOST OF THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING AND EXTEND THE TIME THROUGH 10 PM.
OTHERWISE, CAMS DO SHOW LIGHT RETURNS ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH ON THURSDAY, THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW VERY DRY AIR TO OVERCOME, SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN
SPRINKLES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER BIT OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
THEN LOOKS TO SLIDE THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH CAMS ONCE AGAIN
SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT RADAR RETURNS, THOUGH THE DRY AIR WILL
STILL VERY MUCH BE IN PLACE, SO AGAIN, NOT EXPECTING ANY
MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION.
DRY AND COOL NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ON FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S (PRETTY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR). GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH COMBINED WITH RH VALUES IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF INCREASED FIRE
DANGER, THOUGH WINDS DON'T LOOK TO QUITE REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA
AT THIS POINT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AND THE
GRADIENT RELAXES. HOWEVER, THAT HIGH WILL PUSH OFF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE ROCKIES
LEADING TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE AREA. EPS MEAN
WIND GUSTS ARE IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE WITH RH LOOKING TO FALL
INTO THE TEENS AREA-WIDE WHILE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 60S.
AS A RESULT, EXPECT WIDESPREAD VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER,
AND WE'LL VERY LIKELY NEED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AND EVENTUALLY
A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MOST OF, IF NOT THE ENTIRE AREA.
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. INCREASED FIRE
DANGER WILL PERSIST, THOUGH WITH THE SURFACE LOW EDGING
EASTWARD, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX A BIT, SO WINDS ARE
LOOKING TO BE MORE IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE.
THE WARMER WEATHER SHOULD STICK AROUND INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH A PATTERN SHIFT LOOKS TO BE ON THE
TABLE WITH SOME INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PASSES TO OUR EAST LEAVING US UNDER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE FIRST CHANCES ARRIVE MONDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW EJECTS EASTWARD. HOWEVER, WITH THE DRY AIR STILL IN
PLACE, THIS SHOULDN'T AMOUNT TO MUCH, WITH CHANCES IN THE
20-40% RANGE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW LOOK TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION, DRAGGING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES. BY
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY, GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING A
STRONGER SYSTEM WITH MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY, THOUGH STILL
QUITE A FEW DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND TRACK. RIGHT NOW, CHANCES
FOR US SIT IN THE 40-60% RANGE. IT ALSO APPEARS AT LEAST PART OF
THE AREA COULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW IF THAT SYSTEM
TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA, THOUGH STILL A LOT OF TIME TO FIGURE
OUT DETAILS ON THAT ONE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL WORK INTO ALL THREE TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT AS 45 KT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MOVE IN AT FL015 BEFORE
DIMINISHING BY 26/13-14Z.
CALM SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT
PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY VEER TO NORTHERLY AND INCREASE IN SPEED BEHIND THE FRONT.
WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 25-33 KT RANGE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO
INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR
NEZ088>093.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...WOOD
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