373
FXUS63 KOAX 021952
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
252 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A 40-80% CHANCE FOR RAIN AND STORMS ON FRIDAY. FAR
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WILL NEED TO BE ON THE
LOOKOUT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
- MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST FOR
THE WEEKEND.
- MILD TEMPERATURES WITH OFF AN ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW PROPAGATED EAST TOWARDS WY.
SURFACE OBS SHOWED NORTHWEST FLOW WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL SYSTEM.
THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THERE IS REASONABLE
AGREEMENT FROM THE 12Z OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS WITH THE SURFACE
LOW TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEB AND SOUTHWEST IA THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE WARM SECTOR AND
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
GOOD BULK SHEAR OF 50KT TO 60KT COULD ALLOW FROM SOME ROTATING
UPDRAFTS AND A LARGE HAIL THREAT. HOWEVER CAMS CONTINUES TO SHOW
THE CONVECTIVE MODE FAVORING A LINEAR SYSTEM WITH MODELS
SHOWING THE SURFACE FRONT MOVING NEARLY 20KT TO 25KT. THIS COULD
HAVE THE TENDENCY TO UNDERCUT THE UPDRAFTS IF THEY ARE NOT ABLE
TO PROPAGATE OFF THE BOUNDARY AND LIMIT THEIR ABILITY TO
STRENGTHEN TO SEVERE LEVELS. FURTHER NORTH NEAR THE SD STATE
LINE, THE NBM IS COOLING SURFACE TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 30S WITH
THE PROSPECT FOR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WITH EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY KEEPING A NEUTRAL ADVECTION PATTERN. WITH A LOT OF
THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE KEEPING TEMPS MORE IN THE MIDDLE 30S,
HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST A LITTLE WARMER THINKING CLOUD COVER
AND A LACK OF STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WOULD MAKE IT HARD FOR
FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW TO CAUSE MUCH OF AN IMPACT. LARGE SPREADS
WERE NOTED IN THE ENSEMBLES AND NBM FOR HIGHS FRIDAY GIVEN THE
CYCLONE PASSING THROUGH. WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION TO THE
SOUTH AND LIMITED INSOLATION AND A COLD START TO THE DAY NORTH,
THINK THE NBM FORECAST HIGHS ARE A REASONABLE FIRST ITERATION.
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS FOR THE
SYSTEM TO EXIT TO THE EAST FRIDAY EVENING WITH A DRY SLOT
ADVECTING INTO WESTERN IA. MOST OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE IS KEEPING
ANY WRAP AROUND MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS
IN MIND I TRENDED POPS FROM THE NBM LOWER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
STILL HAVE SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP. THE NBM ALSO KEEPS SOME SMALL
POPS IN ACROSS FOR NORTHEAST NEB INTO SATURDAY MORNING. OPTED TO
LEAVE THESE INTACT, BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIP
CHANCES BEING THIS HIGH AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS TOWARDS LAKE
SUPERIOR WHILE A DRY NORTHWEST WIND PERSIST.
SURFACE RIDGING AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO BRING
DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION SUNDAY. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN LOOKS TO
TRANSITION NEXT WEEK FROM A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME TO ONE WITH
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THIS
SHOULD LIMIT CHANCES FOR A STRONG UPPER RIDGE TO DEVELOP. SO
MILD WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST WITH THE NBM SHOWING LOW END POPS
JUST ABOUT EVERY PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN THE POP FORECAST IS LOW
AS ENSEMBLES SHOW MIXED SIGNALS FOR PRECIP. PERHAPS THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR PRECIP COMES LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE MODELS TRY TO
BRING A BOUNDARY SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
WITH SHOWERS EXITING TO THE EAST, MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THE
FORECAST ARE CIGS. THE NAM AND GFS APPEAR TO BE TOO OPTIMISTIC
IN CLEARING SKIES BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. SO USED
THE RAP AND LITTLE MORE HEAVILY. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY IMPROVE
CIGS FOR LNK AND OMA LATE IN THE DAY. BUT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CIGS RETURNING. MOST GUIDANCE
KEEPS PRECIP NORTH OF OFK UNTIL AROUND 18Z SO HAVE KEPT DRY
CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOLTERS
AVIATION...WOLTERS
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