819
FXUS63 KOAX 030440
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1140 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A STORM SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM LINCOLN
TO OMAHA.
- THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK DECREASES LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE
WITH RAIN, A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND SNOW ALL POSSIBLE THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.
- DRY CONDITIONS SET UP SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
- ANOTHER PATTERN SHIFT BRINGS ADDITIONAL PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
HAND ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN IOWA THIS EVENING,
WITH ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES OVER
EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT, THERE WILL
BE A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. WITH RECENT PRECIPITATION,
RADIATIONAL COOLING, WEAK UPSLOPE WINDS AND LESS CLOUD COVER OVER
THE AREA HEADING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY, CANNOT
ENTIRELY RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING IN LOW-LYING AREAS.
HEADING INTO THE DAY FRIDAY, THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO EAST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA DURING THE DAY WITH A COLD
FRONT TRAILING BEHIND IT. WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR, TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE 60S AND 70S, WHILE NORTHERN AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE
40S AND 50S THROUGH THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE UP
ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS INITIALLY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
OF PRODUCING SOME HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. GUSTY WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE OF THE DOMINANT HAZARD TYPE AS STORMS CONGEAL INTO A LINE AND
BECOME A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED. AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK CANNOT BE
ENTIRELY RULED OUT FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF NEBRASKA.
ONCE THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH, MODELS SHOW A DRY SLOT
COMING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE LOW PROGRESSES NORTHEAST.
WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
EVENING FOR AREAS NORTH OF HWY 92. RAIN WILL TRANSITION OVER TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW AS TEMPERATURES FALL. BY
SUNRISE SATURDAY, SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT OF THE REGION.
EXPECT BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30-35MPH. EXPECTED
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-40S TO MID-50S.
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP OVER
THE REGION WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AFTER SEVERAL DAYS
OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION, WE WILL FINALLY HAVE A CHANCE TO DRY
OUT A LITTLE BIT.
HEADING INTO THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE PATTERN
CHANGES AGAIN WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION.
EXPECT PERIODIC CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
IFR CIGS HAVE SLOWLY LIFTED INTO MVFR TERRITORY AT FL015 TO
FL020. LOW CIGS MOVE BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH
IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST ONCE AGAIN. VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED TO
SLIP AS PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT KOFK BY SUNRISE.
THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE THE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE IS BETWEEN 25-60% FOR SOME SHOWERS
BETWEEN 3AM AND 3PM. HAVE INCLUDED THEM IN THE OMA TAF WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THERE,
TOO.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOME EASTERLY FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
REDEVELOPING THEIR NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...NICOLAISEN
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