543
FXUS63 KOAX 031650
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1150 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A STORM SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM LINCOLN
TO OMAHA.
- THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK DECREASES LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE
WITH RAIN, A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND SNOW ALL POSSIBLE THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.
- DRY CONDITIONS SET UP SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
- ANOTHER PATTERN SHIFT BRINGS ADDITIONAL PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
HAND ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN IOWA THIS EVENING,
WITH ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES OVER
EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT, THERE WILL
BE A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. WITH RECENT PRECIPITATION,
RADIATIONAL COOLING, WEAK UPSLOPE WINDS AND LESS CLOUD COVER OVER
THE AREA HEADING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY, CANNOT
ENTIRELY RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING IN LOW-LYING AREAS.
HEADING INTO THE DAY FRIDAY, THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO EAST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA DURING THE DAY WITH A COLD
FRONT TRAILING BEHIND IT. WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR, TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE 60S AND 70S, WHILE NORTHERN AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE
40S AND 50S THROUGH THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE UP
ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS INITIALLY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
OF PRODUCING SOME HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. GUSTY WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE OF THE DOMINANT HAZARD TYPE AS STORMS CONGEAL INTO A LINE AND
BECOME A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED. AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK CANNOT BE
ENTIRELY RULED OUT FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF NEBRASKA.
ONCE THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH, MODELS SHOW A DRY SLOT
COMING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE LOW PROGRESSES NORTHEAST.
WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
EVENING FOR AREAS NORTH OF HWY 92. RAIN WILL TRANSITION OVER TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW AS TEMPERATURES FALL. BY
SUNRISE SATURDAY, SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT OF THE REGION.
EXPECT BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30-35MPH. EXPECTED
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-40S TO MID-50S.
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP OVER
THE REGION WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AFTER SEVERAL DAYS
OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION, WE WILL FINALLY HAVE A CHANCE TO DRY
OUT A LITTLE BIT.
HEADING INTO THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE PATTERN
CHANGES AGAIN WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION.
EXPECT PERIODIC CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TRAVERSE EASTERN
NEBRASKA, PRIMARILY KOMA AND KLNK. AN UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO THE
AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS AT KOMA. A BRIEF
THUNDERSTORM MAY PASS BY KLNK IN THE 18-20Z TIMEFRAME.
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE
EARLY EVENING, ALONG WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS.
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP CEILINGS TOWARDS THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE
THIS EVENING, WITH MOST LOCATIONS IMPROVING ONLY TO MVFR
CONDITIONS. BRIEF RETURNS TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
WIDESPREAD IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL SATURDAY
MORNING. NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO THE 20-25 KT
RANGE INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...WOOD
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