266
FXUS63 KOAX 042315
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
615 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. RAIN
COULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNINGS WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
- VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IS FORECAST IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 60S AND
70S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY:
EARLY-AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER MN WITH AN ASSOCIATED VORTICITY LOBE PIVOTING THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE LOW ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY. LATEST CAM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THAT FEATURE
MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN WEST-CENTRAL IA. OTHERWISE, STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35-40 MPH WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING THIS EVENING, ALONG WITH CLOUD
COVER.
A DOWNSLOPE-ENHANCED, WARM-ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY:
A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL IN THE MID LEVELS WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE GLANCING THE REGION TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY. IN THE
LOW LEVELS, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH A COOLER AIR MASS OVERSPREADING THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WHEN HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S ARE FORECAST.
A STRENGTHENING BAND OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OF 40-60% FORECAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. BY
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK
DISTURBANCE MENTIONED ABOVE COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING LOW/MID-LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OF 40-55% FORECAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR RAIN TO MIX WITH SNOW OR CHANGE OVER TO
ALL SNOW AT SOME LOCATIONS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS WITH SOME
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. THE 06Z RUNS OF THE EPS AND GEFS DO
INDICATE UP TO A 40-50% CHANCE FOR ONE INCH ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A 5-10% CHANCE OF MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY:
LATEST GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW
TRACKING THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED BELT OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS OVERSPREADING THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT, WHICH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL ADVECT A WARMER
AIR MASS INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH WEDNESDAY'S HIGHS
IN THE 60S AND 70S. THE WARM TEMPERATURES IN CONJUNCTION WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY REDUCTIONS TO 25-30% WILL RESULT IN VERY HIGH
FIRE DANGER IN NORTHEAST NE. 20-40% POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR A FEW
STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.
ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, A LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND COMBINE WITH THE SURFACE
FRONT IN THE VICINITY TO SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH 40-60% POPS THURSDAY INCREASING TO
60-70% THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST WILL INDICATE CONTINUED HIGH
POPS INTO FRIDAY; HOWEVER, SOME RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THE FRONT COULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY, REDUCING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THERE IS A SMALL SIGNAL IN SOME MACHINE-
LEARNING GUIDANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ALONG
THE FRONT THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FAVORED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DIMINISHING
3500-5000 FT CLOUDS THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN
NORTHWESTERLY, GUSTING 20-30 KTS EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE
DROPPING BELOW 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
TOWARD SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH HINTS
OF 18-25 KT GUSTS BY AROUND 20Z.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MEAD
AVIATION...CA
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