507
FXUS63 KOAX 051711
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1211 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
- RAIN COULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNINGS WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SLICK SPOTS WILL BE DURING THE TUESDAY
MORNING COMMUTE (10-20% CHANCE).
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
- VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IS FORECAST IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 60S AND
70S AND WINDS GUST 25-35 MPH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO WESTERN NE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S. SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PUSHES INTO EASTERN KS AND WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW SETS UP
THROUGH AT LEAST CENTRAL NE, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
EASTERN NE AND WESTERN IA TO GET INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN
MOST SPOTS. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS IT MAY GET A TOUCH BREEZY BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING 25-30+ KTS AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AND EPS MEMBERS SHOWING MEAN GUSTS
OF 25-30 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY, WITH STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
SETTING UP BEHIND IT AND LEADING TO INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES STARTING EARLY MONDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST NE INTO WEST-
CENTRAL IA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR TO OVERCOME, BUT MOST STILL SHOW AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD
WHERE THE COLUMN SATURATES ENOUGH FOR SOMETHING TO REACH THE
GROUND, BUT IT SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT. AS FAR AS TYPE THROUGH
MONDAY, IT SHOULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW EARLY MONDAY
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN AS WE WARM UP DURING THE DAY.
CURRENTLY EXPECTING MAYBE A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW
WITH RELATIVELY WARM GROUND HELPING TO MELT ANYTHING OF NOTE
THROUGH MONDAY. THAT SAID, ENSEMBLES DO GIVE A 10-20% OF 1"
FALLING IN A NARROW BAND ACROSS NORTHEAST NE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTOGENESIS EDGES SOUTH
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS. EXPECT RAIN TO SWITCH TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW AS WE COOL DOWN MONDAY NIGHT WITH A
TRANSITION BACK TO RAIN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SATURATION WILL LAST MUCH LONGER AT A GIVEN SPOT
COMPARED TO MONDAY, THUS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW AND SLICK SPOTS. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD ON WHERE THE
PRIMARY BAND WILL SET UP, BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 30- 50%
CHANCE OF AT LEAST 1". SHOULD THIS PAN OUT, THE TUESDAY MORNING
COMMUTE COULD BE SLICK IN SOME SPOTS.
BY WEDNESDAY, GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PUSHING ALONG OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER AND EVENTUALLY DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON EXACT
TIMING, BUT GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT WE'LL HAVE SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, EPS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE'LL SEE SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25-40 MPH
WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO THE 60S AND 70S AND RH IN THE 20S
AND 30S. PENDING PRECIPITATION, THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME VERY
HIGH FIRE DANGER, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST NE WHERE RH WILL BE
LOWEST. AGAIN, THIS WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON FRONT TIMING.
THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL IN OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHILE VARIOUS BITS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOOK TO EJECT OUT OF
A LARGER SCALE TROUGH BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. STILL
LOTS OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT, WITH THE PRIMARY ONE PROBABLY BEING
THE POSITION OF THE FRONT, BUT FOR NOW, THE SETUP FAVORS
MAINTAINING A 40-70% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FINALLY, FOR WHAT IT'S WORTH, GEFS-BASED
MACHINE LEARNING SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES INDICATE AT LEAST
SMALL (5%) DAILY CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 11-13 KT WITH GUSTS OF 18-22
KT THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISH BY 06/00Z. THE MODELS INDICATE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT PRECIPITATION BAND LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THAT OCCURRENCE BEING
TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...MEAD
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