917
FXUS63 KOAX 052328
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
628 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A RAIN-SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE (30-50% POPS) LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
WEST-CENTRAL IOWA WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
- RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SOME 1-3" ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR
POSSIBLE WITH A 40-60% CHANCE OF SLIPPERY ROADS DURING THE
TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY:
A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MN AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
STRENGTHENING FRONTOGENESIS WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL
SUPPORT A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST SD, NORTHEAST NE, AND NORTHWEST
IA. THERE IS SOME MODEL VARIABILITY IN EXACTLY WHERE THE BAND WILL
SETUP WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OF 30-50% ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS VALID AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING
INDICATE NEAR-GROUND TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF A RAIN-
SNOW MIX WITH SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER A COMPLETE CHANGE OVER
TO LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR. EITHER WAY, DEEP-LAYER SATURATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT TRANSIENT WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN REMAIN POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY IN FAR EASTERN NE AND SOUTHWEST IA, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S
TO LOW/MID 50S.
ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, STRENGTHENING LOW/MID-
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE ORGANIZATION OF A
MORE INTENSE PRECIPITATION BAND FROM PORTIONS OF EASTERN NE INTO
NORTHERN MO (50-70% POPS). PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START OUT
AS RAIN BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN-SNOW MIX AND THEN TO ALL
SNOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A RELATIVELY LONG DURATION OF
DEEP-LAYER SATURATION WITH UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION EXTENDING
INTO THE DENDRITIC-GROWTH ZONE. IN ADDITION, MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
WITHIN THE 700-500-MB LAYER, WHICH WOULD ENHANCE PRECIPITATION
RATES. THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD GREATER
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WITH GENERALLY A 60-80% CHANCE OF AN INCH OR
MORE ACCUMULATIONS, AND A 10-30% CHANCE OF THREE-INCH OR MORE
ACCUMULATIONS. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE SNOW BAND REMAINS
UNCERTAIN; HOWEVER, AREA RESIDENTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR A FEW
SLIPPERY ROADS DURING THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE (40-60%
CHANCE).
CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION AND THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF A WEAK, MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF RAIN (30-50% POPS)
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF A WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTH INTO THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM MID
40S IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES TO UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF OUR AREA, TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:
THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED SOUTH IN THE TRACK OF A SIGNIFICANT
MID-LEVEL TROUGH, WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME. AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE SD/NE BORDER TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE MID-MO VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS
INCREASING THROUGH THE 40S TO AROUND 50 AHEAD OF FRONT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST POPS
OF 40-70% ARE INDICATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR WEDNESDAY, RESULTING IN STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 35 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. WHILE WINDS WILL BE WEAKER
BEHIND THE FRONT, RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE
25-30% RANGE IN NORTHEAST NE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, LEADING TO
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER.
THE SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS KS AND MO ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY BENEATH A QUASI-ZONAL, MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. PERSISTENT
WARM ADVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEAK
DISTURBANCES PASSING NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT
CONTINUED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, THE HIGHEST OF
WHICH WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NE AND SOUTHWEST IA. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER (COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY) WITH
READINGS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
BY SATURDAY, THERE IS SOME MODEL SIGNAL THAT THE FRONT MAY MOVE
NORTH BACK INTO THE AREA, LEADING TO CONTINUED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS WELL AS WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S.
VARIOUS MACHINE-LEARNING GUIDANCE SHOWS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF AT
LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE-WEATHER POTENTIAL FROM FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND, SO THAT IS SOMETHING WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FAVORED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS AROUND 8000-10000 FT OVERNIGHT AND SOME
5000-8000 FT CLOUDS MOVING IN MONDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW BY EARLY MONDAY, BUT KEEPS ANY
ACCUMULATION NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. THAT SAID, COULD SEE SOME
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES AT OFK WITH SOME CLOUDS AROUND 3000 FT.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT,
BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 KTS MONDAY MORNING.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MEAD
AVIATION...CA
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