834
FXUS63 KOAX 071816
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
116 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES WILL VACILLATE BETWEEN SEASONAL NORMS (HIGHS IN
THE 50S) AND WELL-ABOVE NORMAL (HIGHS 70S)
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
HEAVIEST SHOWERS ARE WELL INTO CENTRAL IOWA THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
AS FORECAST, LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE QUICKLY
PASSING OVERHEAD. EXPECT TO LOSE THOSE RADAR RETURNS AROUND
SUNSET. QPF IS NEGLIGIBLE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP SPEED OVERNIGHT WITH 50-60 KNOT WINDS
AT H9. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 15-25MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 35 MPH.
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE REPLACED OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES
SOUTHEAST. IT'LL FIND ITS WAY THROUGH COLUMBUS AROUND NOON AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SW IOWA AROUND
7PM. WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FORECAST, TEMPS SHOULD MANAGE
WIDESPREAD 70S WITH SOME 60S RESERVED FOR THE SOGGIEST AREAS OF
THIS MORNING. NBM WAS OVERZEALOUS IN ITS POPS ALONG THIS FRONT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY'S FIRST HALF, SO I PUSHED THEM CLOSER TO
20-25% UNTIL 4PM- ISH DURING THE DAY'S MAXIMUM HEAT. WITH THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES FORECAST, SOME THUNDER IS EXPECTED FOR AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 THOUGH SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ARE
NEGLIGIBLE ON THIS SIDE OF THE KANSAS STATE LINE.
THE STALLED FRONT MAY HELP INITIATE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A LEE SFC TROF PUSHES ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY TO
PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
EXTENDED FORECAST
REGULAR CHANCES OF SHOWERS SEEM LIKE A SAFE BET (60-80%) THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS STRONG MOISTURE RETURN DEVELOPS AHEAD OF WEST
COAST TROFING. PWAT VALUES BY SATURDAY NIGHT OF 1.5" ARE NEAR
THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, SO DESPITE NOT
YET BEING FORECAST, HEAVIER RAIN IS POSSIBLE. THE WEEK'S WARMEST
TEMPS COINCIDE WITH THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY'S HIGHS SETTLE NEAR
70F WITH ANOTHER FIVE DEGREES ADDED ATOP FOR SUNDAY.
MONDAY SEES AN UPPER LEVEL TROF DRIVING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS ALLOWS DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO SWEEP IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR TUESDAY. THE SPC HAS ALREADY HIGHLIGHTED
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN IOWA AS HAVING A CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER NEXT MONDAY AHEAD OF THAT COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY OVERCAST AT FL012. HAVE
CONTINUED FORECASTING A MINOR DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS AT
KOMA THIS EVENING AS CIGS FALL TO IFR CATEGORY. VISIBILITY MAY
FALL TO 4-6 MILES.
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY MIDNIGHT.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE JUST OFF THE SURFACE WITH SPEEDS OF
50-60 KNOTS LEADING TO WIND SHEAR ISSUES.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NICOLAISEN
AVIATION...NICOLAISEN
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