623
FXUS63 KOAX 081007
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
507 AM CDT WED APR 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES FROM WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES (5-15% CHANCE ON A
GIVEN DAY).
- TEMPERATURES WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN SEASONAL NORMS (HIGHS IN
THE 50S AND 60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY) AND WELL-ABOVE NORMAL
(HIGHS 70S FOR THE WEEKEND.)
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT WED APR 8 2026
EVENING ANALYSIS SHOWED A SURFACE WARM FRONT ADVANCING
NORTHWARD, STRETCHING FROM ROUGHLY COLUMBUS TO OMAHA TO CLARINDA
AS OF 10 PM. NORTH OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40 AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WERE IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE WY/SD BORDER. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY HOLD STEADY OR CLIMB INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION, WE'LL SEE SURFACE WINDS STRENGTHEN AS WE GO THROUGH
THE NIGHT, WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING WE MIX INTO SOME OF
THAT LOW LEVEL JET BY 9-10 AM AND SOME 35-45 MPH GUSTS REACH THE
SURFACE. THE LOW (ALONG WITH A STRONGER CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN BORDER) WILL HELP DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY AND GIVEN THE WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SAID FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE FRONT HAS PUSHED
SOUTHEAST OF OMAHA AND LINCOLN. INSTABILITY WILL BE PRETTY
LIMITED, THOUGH THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH FOR A FEW STRONGER
STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL, AND WITH AN INVERTED V SOUNDING, CAN'T
RULE OUT SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH A COLLAPSING STORM.
THE FRONT IS FAVORED TO STALL IN OR JUST IMMEDIATELY SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL RAMP UP AGAIN AND
COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST NE
AND SOUTHWEST IA INTO THURSDAY MORNING (15-30% CHANCE). SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL THEN SLIDE THROUGH DURING THE DAY,
PROVIDING ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT AND LEADING TO MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT INCHES BACK
NORTHWARD. A FEW PIECES OF GUIDANCE HINT AT JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO YIELD A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM THREAT
IN FAR SOUTHEAST NE AND FAR SOUTHWEST IA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
EVENING, THOUGH WE'LL HAVE TO SEE HOW MORNING CONVECTION PANS
OUT AND HOW THINGS TREND.
THE FRONT WILL STAY IN THE VICINITY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
SHOOTING BACK NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES
SLIDE THROUGH AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT POINTS INTO THE AREA, WE'LL
SEE DAILY SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES. STILL LOTS OF DETAILS TO BE
WORKED OUT, BUT THERE WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES AT TIMES,
WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SOME DECENT INSTABILITY MOVING IN ALONG
WITH NAEFS MEAN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25" OR MORE,
GOOD FOR THE 99TH+ PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. SO POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SOME HEAVIER RAIN AS WELL, BUT
WE'LL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS PAN OUT REGARDING TIMING/FORCING.
THE SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS A
LARGER SCALE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, WITH VARIOUS
BITS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF IT AND THROUGH OUR
AREA BEFORE THE TROUGH ITSELF DEAMPLIFIES A BIT AND MOVES
THROUGH TOWARD THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. AS IT STANDS, WE'RE
SEEING AT LEAST A 30-40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EVERY DAY
THROUGH TUESDAY, AND 60-80+% CHANCES AT TIMES THURSDAY AND
DURING THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 505 AM CDT WED APR 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LLWS
(SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 50-55 KTS AROUND 2000 FT AGL) WILL
CONTINUE EFFECT ALL TAF SITES UNTIL 14-16Z THIS MORNING. SURFACE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH MID MORNING,
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-35 KTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, AND CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THE EVENING. THE NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED TO REACH
KOFK BY 16Z, AND MAKE IT'S WAY TO KLNK AND KOMA CLOSER TO 20Z.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...KG
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