943
FXUS63 KOAX 091035
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
535 AM CDT THU APR 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH SEVERAL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO NEXT WEEK.
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE
MAIN THREATS WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS
IS ANTICIPATED BY MONDAY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS NOTED IN UPPER AIR ANALYSIS WITH A COMPACT
UPPER-LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A BROAD
TROUGH OVER BAJA. WITH THE COMPACT LOW TO OUR NORTH, A COLD FRONT
PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRED ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT, BUT ONLY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 30S TO LOW 40S BY THURSDAY
MORNING WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT.
IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND A DIGGING TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY STALL AND BEGIN TO
RETREAT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT HEADING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AT THIS TIME, FORECAST GUIDANCE BRINGS THE WARM FRONT NORTH TO
APPROXIMATELY THE NEBRASKA-KANSAS BORDER, BUT THERE REMAINS
DISAGREEMENT ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT. A FEW FORECAST
MODELS BRING THE WARM FRONT CLOSER TO THE I-80 CORRIDOR. WHERE THE
FRONT ENDS UP WILL DETERMINE THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURES. AREAS NORTH
OF THE FRONT HOLD IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S, WHILE 70S ARE LIKELY
SOUTH OF THE FRONT. A FEW STRAY SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE
FRONT, BUT CHANCES ARE RELATIVELY LOW COMPARED TO LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO SUPPORT MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALMOST CERTAIN FOR MUCH
OF EAST AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS THERE IS A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER. AT THIS TIME
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5), MAINLY FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS, THOUGH A TORNADO CAN'T BE RULED OUT ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE WARM FRONT. WITH THAT SAID, MOST STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE SUB-
SEVERE WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH NORTHERN EXTENT. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AS THE WARM FRONT BECOMES A COLD
FRONT ONCE AGAIN AND SAGS SOUTH OF THE REGION.
A BRIEF LULL IS ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS QUICKLY CHANGES HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN EVOLVES INTO A LARGER WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH. THIS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD SUPPORT RETURN FLOW BY
SATURDAY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING MOISTURE. A FEW
LEADING SHORTWAVES MAY DRIVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND PERHAPS
SEVERE WEATHER, BUT THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THESE SPECIFIC
DETAILS. SATURDAY SEES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION, WITH AT
LEAST SOME THREAT OF AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT. THE BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH DRAWS CLOSER TO
THE REGION ALONG WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE
LIKELY AS MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BE IN
THE FORECAST HEADING INTO MONDAY AS THE TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO
EJECT EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. SEVERE WEATHER IS CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED FOR AT LEAST FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
ON MONDAY.
BEYOND THIS, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST, BUT A COOLER, MORE STABLE AIRMASS BEHIND A COLD FRONT
SHOULD PROVIDE A LULL IN SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THAT SAID, RETURN FLOW REDEVELOPS TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT
WEEK, SIGNALING MORE POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE WEATHER.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 525 AM CDT THU APR 9 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 12-20Z TODAY. THIS AFTERNOON, A
BETTER CHANCE FOR A LINE OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A WARM
FRONT DRAPED FROM NEAR KLNK THROUGH KOMA. CURRENTLY, THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE FROM 00-05Z AT KLNK AND 17-21Z AT
KOMA. A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS COULD REACH KOMA FROM 00-05Z THIS
EVENING. THE TIMING OF THESE STORMS WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION
OF THE WARM FRONT. IF IT DRIFTS FARTHER NORTH, STORMS MAY
LINGER LONGER. HOWEVER IF IT SHIFTS SOUTH, THEY COULD MISS THE
TERMINALS ENTIRELY. THE LATEST RUNS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY LATER
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER STORMS AND A TOUCH FARTHER
SOUTH THAN I-80. LOWER CEILINGS RANGING FROM MVFR TO IFR WILL
LIKELY BE COINCIDENT WITH THE STORMS AND DRIFT SOUTHEAST WITH
THE WARM FRONT, EFFECTING KLNK FROM 00-08Z AND KOMA FROM 21-06Z.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CHEHAK
AVIATION...KG
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