015
FXUS63 KOAX 162310
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
610 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM, DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN VERY HIGH TO
EXTREME FIRE DANGER TODAY, WITH A RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT
THROUGH 8 PM.
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY,
ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
- COOLER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRIDAY. SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BELOW FREEZING FOR
SOME LOCATIONS, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WARM-UP INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND FLEETING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS BRINGING A WARM, SUNNY AND BREEZY DAY TO THE AREA TODAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 80S AREAWIDE,
APPROXIMATELY 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS FOR MID-APRIL. THESE
CONDITIONS HAVE ALSO BROUGHT VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER TO THE
AREA, WITH A RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. WINDS WILL BE THE ONLY LIMITING
FACTORS IN TODAY'S FIRE WEATHER SETUP, WITH SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY
WINDS OF 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH. WHILE OVER MIXING IS
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON, MODEL SOUNDINGS DISPLAY WINDS ON THE TOP OF
THE MIXED LAYER CAPPED AROUND 20-25 KTS. OVER MIXING IS MORE LIKELY
TO BE REALIZED WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES, WITH THE LOW
TEEN PERCENTAGES EXPECTED IN EAST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA, IMPROVING
TO 25 PERCENT TOWARDS FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
THE BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY..
A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EJECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY, FORCING A ROBUST COLD FRONT TO SWEEP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE VARIABLE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH TEMPERATURES DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND WAA PRIOR TO THE FRONT'S ARRIVAL. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE 50S ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NE WHERE THE
FRONT PASSES THROUGH BY THE LATE MORNING, WITH THE UPPER 70S/LOW
80S EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST NE AND SOUTHWEST IA. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY BY THE FRONT, WITH AN INITIAL
SURGE OF 25-35 MPH GUSTS.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AS A POTENT WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. AMPLE
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE MET WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES (7.5-8.5
DEG/KM), A MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS (MLCAPE > 2000 J/KG) AND STRONG
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. HOWEVER, MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY TRENDED
TOWARDS A FASTER CRASHING THROUGH OF THE COLD FRONT, LEAVING
CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE FRONT TO LIKELY RESIDE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT CAM GUIDANCE HAS CI IN FAR NORTHEAST
KS/NORTHWEST MO. WITH THE IN MIND, SPC HAS TRIMMED DOWN OUR AREA
IN THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK, KEEPING A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2 OUT OF 5) IN FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
BEHIND THE FRONT, STRONG CAA WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY
DROP. MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY STARVED BEHIND THE FRONT. WHILE SOME
CAM GUIDANCE SPAWNS LIGHT RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOWERS INTO
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, MODEL SOUNDINGS REVEAL A DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER, BRINGING LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
GROUND. WITH THIS IN MIND, I'VE OPTED TO TRIM DOWN BOTH POPS
BEHIND THE FRONT, NOW ONLY PEAKING AROUND 15-20% INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
MID 20S ACROSS NORTHEAST NE, INCREASING TO THE MID 30S BY
SOUTHEAST NE AND SOUTHWEST IA.
THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BE FELT ON SATURDAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY PEAKING IN THE 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP INTO THE 20S AND 30S. TAKE CARE TO
PROTECT ANY VULNERABLE VEGETATION AND UNPLUG ANY GARDEN HOSES THAT
WAY HAVE BEEN RECONNECTED OVER OUR WARM STRETCH.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND...
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE AREA BY THE START OF NEXT
WEEK, BRINGING A WARMING TREND BACK TO THE AREA. SUNDAY HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE 60S, WITH WIDESPREAD 70S ON MONDAY, AND
MOST LOCATIONS HITTING THE LOW 80S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NO
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS PERIOD WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS, GIVEN LONG RANGE GUIDANCE DOES BRING ANOTHER
TROUGH INTO THE AREA WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION. OVERNIGHT, A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT
LLWS ACROSS THE REGION. LLWS IS EXPECTED TO WANE AROUND SUNRISE
WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF MVRF
CEILINGS BRIEFLY IMPACTING OMA JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE WITH AN
ADVANCING WARM FRONT. AT THIS TIME, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS
SCENARIO AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE TAF. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. A RAPIDLY PROGRESSING
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING AND QUICKLY
MOVES THROUGH ALL TERMINALS DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. WINDS
MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
BEFORE QUICKLY BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND IT. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FRONT, BUT IT IS
EXPECTED THAT THE MAJORITY OF THIS WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE
AREA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE FRONT.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>034-042>044-050-065.
IA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043.
DISCUSSION...WOOD
AVIATION...CHEHAK
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