969
FXUS63 KOAX 170433
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1133 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.
- COOLER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BELOW FREEZING
FOR MANY LOCATIONS. DAMAGE TO SENSITIVE OUTDOOR VEGETATION
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINS ON SUNDAY. RELATIVELY WARM,
DRY, AND QUIET WEATHER WILL ACCOMPANY THIS UNTIL OUR NEXT
POTENTIAL WEATHER SYSTEM BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
AFTER A WARM, DRY, AND WINDY AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY, RAPID
MOISTURE RETURN HAS BEGUN. DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO
CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
THIS EVENING. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO LEE TROUGHING AND A STRONG
40 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE PROGRESSIVE AS IT EJECTS INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP TO THE WEST AND MOVE INTO OUR AREA BY FRIDAY
MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THIS LOW PRESSURE,
PUSHING A COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION
FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED THE TREND OF A FASTER FRONT. IN
THIS EVENT, THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR ALL BUT SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS IN TURN
LOWERS THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR OUR AREA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL ANITICPATED NEAR THE FRONT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON, BUT THESE WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. IF
ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN STRENGTHEN ENOUGH PRIOR TO THIS,
ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE, COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER GRADUALLY FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TO THE LOW 80S OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUMMET AFTER SUNSET AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO
DECREASE TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
BY THIS WEEKEND, THE MUCH COLDER AIRMASS REALLY SETS IN.
SATURDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ARE EXPECTED WITH
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN, TEMPERATURES MAY
ONLY REACH THE 50S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
ARRIVE SUNDAY MORNING. THIS IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES. SUNDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR MANY ACROSS THE AREA, EXCEPT PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. THANKFULLY, THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO OUR EAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR
THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND. WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES
DURING THE MORNING THIS WEEKEND, DAMAGE TO SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE POSSIBLE.
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK IS MARKED BY WARM, DRY, AND QUIET
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 70S TO
NEAR 80 ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY. DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING,
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE UNTIL AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME, OUR NEXT TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ANOTHER
COOLDOWN IS LIKELY TO FOLLOW LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION. OVERNIGHT, A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT
LLWS ACROSS THE REGION. LLWS IS EXPECTED TO WANE AROUND SUNRISE
WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF MVRF
CEILINGS BRIEFLY IMPACTING OMA JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE WITH AN
ADVANCING WARM FRONT. AT THIS TIME, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS
SCENARIO AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE TAF. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. A RAPIDLY PROGRESSING
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING AND QUICKLY
MOVES THROUGH ALL TERMINALS DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. WINDS
MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
BEFORE QUICKLY BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND IT. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FRONT, BUT IT IS
EXPECTED THAT THE MAJORITY OF THIS WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE
AREA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE FRONT.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CHEHAK
AVIATION...CHEHAK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page