251
FXUS63 KOAX 190103
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
803 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO EXTREME
FIRE DANGER THROUGH 8 PM.
- TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 30S TONIGHT, WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
- WARM, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BRING VERY HIGH TO
EXTREME FIRE DANGER AGAIN FOR MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES IN THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 801 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES COOL. WITH THE
DECREASING FIRE DANGER, THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
THE AXIS OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY WITH A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE CIRCULATIONS. COLD
AIR ADVECTION RULES THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. THE COLD ADVECTION IS DEEP AND WITH QUITE A BIT OF
SUNSHINE HAS ACTUALLY ALLOWED FOR A RATHER DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE ADDED FORCING FOR VERTICAL
MOTION WITH THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS HAS LED TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WEST
OF THE AREA AT MID DAY. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST,
AND EXPECT THAT SOME LOCATIONS FROM ALBION TOWARD LINCOLN MAY
EXPERIENCE SPRINKLES OR EVEN ENOUGH OF A SHOWER TO WET THE
SIDEWALK THIS AFTERNOON. DON'T BELIEVE THIS CONVECTION WILL BE
DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHTNING, BUT WITH THE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS IN THE AREA (DEEP MIXING HAS ALSO LED TO LOW RH AT
THE SURFACE AND WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH), ANY ROGUE LIGHTNING
STRIKE COULD BE AN ISSUE. WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET,
ALTHOUGH GRADUALLY DECREASING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
EFFICIENT COOLING A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET, BUT MOST GUIDANCE
AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA SUGGESTS THAT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT TO KEEP A BREEZE GOING AND PERHAPS
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS AT OR ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. SO FOR NOW,
HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY FREEZE PRODUCTS OVERNIGHT, AND WOULD ALSO
LIKE TO NOTE THAT THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT NECESSARILY
PROGRESSED TO THE POINT OF ISSUING FREEZE WARNINGS IN A CHUNK OF
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. FARTHER SOUTH THOUGH, IT IS LESS LIKELY TO
REACH THE FREEZING MARK.
ANOTHER COOL FRONT PUSHES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND WINDS MAY
GUST TO 20 MPH IN THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE SETTLING DOWN IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER 60S, AND WITH
LIGHTER AFTERNOON WINDS IT SHOULD BE A RATHER PLEASANT DAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND BRING TEMPS INTO THE
UPPER 80S BY LATE WEDNESDAY. BOTH MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
WARM, DRY, AND WINDY...WITH WEDNESDAY PROBABLY BEING WARMER AND
WINDIER. BOTH OF THESE DAYS COULD SEE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE
DANGER.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS QUITE CONSISTENT IN A LONGER WAVE TROUGH
TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME, AND
EJECTING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM, THIS COULD BRING ONE OR MORE DAYS OF
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, WITH A POTENTIALLY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, AND EYES WILL BE ON THE TIME PERIOD
FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SEEMING TO BE THE MOST LIKELY TIME BASED ON CURRENT
MODEL GUIDANCE TIMING THE SYSTEM.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 552 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS SUNSET OCCURS. WIND SPEEDS DECREASE TONIGHT
AND BACK AROUND TOWARDS THE WEST BY EARLY MORNING DUE TO SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AFTER
SUNRISE SHIFTING WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE NORTH.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
UPDATE...CHEHAK
DISCUSSION...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...CHEHAK
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