432
FXUS63 KOAX 190532
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1232 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 30S TONIGHT, WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
- WARM, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BRING VERY HIGH TO
EXTREME FIRE DANGER AGAIN FOR MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
THE BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR
ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE UNITED STATES WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ON SUNDAY. IN IT'S WAKE, AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND BEGINS ON SUNDAY AS THIS OCCURS. IT
WILL START COLD ON SUNDAY WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. BY AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE
60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO PASS
NORTH OF THE AREA, INCREASING NORTH WINDS. THIS DISTURBANCE
DOES LITTLE TO IMPEDE THE WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES START IN
THE 30S ON MONDAY BEFORE QUICKLY CLIMBING THROUGH THE 70S DURING
THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP ACHIEVE
THIS, BUT WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE, VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR. TEMPERATURES CLIMB FURTHER STILL ON TUESDAY
AS 80S RETURN TO THE FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE
AREA SHOULD HELP KEEP WINDS LIGHT, LIMITING FIRE DANGER. BY
WEDNESDAY LEE TROUGHING RAMPS UP AS OUR NEXT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINS TO APPROACH THE GREAT PLAINS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND STRONG WINDS BY EVENING AHEAD OF ANY
MEANINGFUL MOISTURE RETURN WILL LIKELY CAUSE ANOTHER DAY OF VERY
HIGH TO PERHAPS EXTREME FIRE DANGER.
THURSDAY ONWARD SEES THE BEGINNINGS OF A PATTERN SHIFT FOR THE
REGION. THE AFOREMENTIONED NEXT TROUGH IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
EJECT INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THERE REMAINS
SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF
THIS FEATURE, BUT A GENERAL AGREEMENT IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP.
IN THIS EVENT, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND
LIFT NORTH TOWARDS MANITOBA BY THURSDAY EVENING, A COLD FRONT
WILL EXTEND SOUTH OF THE LOW. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE NEAR OUR AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. WITH
IT BEING MID-APRIL, SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS IS AT
LEAST A CONSIDERATION, THOUGH THOSE DETAILS REMAIN UNCLEAR. IN
ANY CASE, THIS FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. THERE MAY BE LINGERING PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL ALSO. AS THIS TROUGH CONTINUES EAST BY NEXT WEEKEND,
A RETURN TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS PROBABLE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT, WITH
WINDS REMAINING LIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...CHEHAK
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