545
FXUS63 KOAX 191710
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1210 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 30S TONIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR FREEZING IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WEST-CENTRAL
IOWA.
- WARM, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BRING VERY HIGH TO
EXTREME FIRE DANGER AGAIN MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
TEMPERATURES DIPPED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT, WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS DIPPING CLOSER TO 30 EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHEAST OF US, OVER SOUTHERN MN INTO EASTERN
IA, MANAGED TO KICK UP SOME LIGHT RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THE EASTERN
FRINGES OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE TO
NO PRECIPITATION MANAGED TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA FROM OUR WEST TODAY, BRINGING CLEARING SKIES, WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND NOTABLY LIGHTER WINDS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. BY
NOON, TEMPERATURES HAD REACHED THE LOW TO MID 50S IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA, AND INTO THE 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE EASTWARD, INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB A LITTLE EACH DAY, THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS ON MONDAY
MORNING WILL START IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, THOUGH A FEW
LOCATIONS MAY GLANCE THE LOW 30S OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
WEST CENTRAL IOWA. BY THE AFTERNOON, EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE
LOW 70S ACROSS WESTERN IOWA AND THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN EASTERN
NEBRASKA. DRY AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE WARMTH, WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING TO 15 TO 30 PERCENT. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE MONDAY MORNING, WITH A BOOST FROM A PASSING LLJ.
A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20-30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHORT RANGE MODELS
HINT THAT SURFACE WINDS WILL WANE SLIGHTLY FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, AS THE JET MOVES OUT, BUT INCREASE
AGAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH
POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SLIGHTLY
DEEPER MIXING COULD YIELD DRIER CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS AND
BREEZY WINDS, VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IS LIKELY ON MONDAY AND A
FEW POCKETS OF EXTREME FIRE DANGER WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
NIGHT TIME LOWS ONLY FALL TO THE MID 40S AND 50S MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING, SQUASHING ANY FEARS OF FROST/FREEZE. A
SURFACE HIGH WILL NUDGE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY, SUFFICIENTLY
WEAKENING WINDS AND LIMITING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. HIGHS TUESDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S.
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW
WILL DRIVE AN INCREASE IN WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY. EXPECT THE
COMBINATION OF CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS, HIGHS IN THE 80S AND BREEZY
WINDS WILL YIELD ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND...
GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN PUSHING A STRONG TROUGH THROUGH THE
PLAINS MID TO LATE-WEEK. ALTHOUGH EXACT DETAILS, INCLUDING TIMING,
REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. MACHINE LEARNING
MODELS CURRENTLY HINT THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS IN OR NEAR THE FORECAST AREA WOULD BE LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY, WITH SPC ALSO HIGHLIGHTING A 15% RISK ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA THURSDAY.
EXPECT ANOTHER BRIEF COOL-DOWN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AS WE HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND, BEFORE TEMPERATURES LIKELY REBOUND ONCE AGAIN THE
FOLLOWING WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT, EVENTUALLY
BECOMING GUSTY WITH SPEEDS UP TO 12-15 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 20-25
AFTER 12Z MONDAY MORNING.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...KG
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