641
FXUS63 KOAX 200548
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1248 AM CDT MON APR 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 30S TONIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR-FREEZING FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
- WARM, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BRING VERY HIGH TO
POTENTIALLY EXTREME FIRE DANGER FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVES ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE IS A
LOW (15%) CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS FOR PORTIONS OF AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
THE LARGE, SLOW-MOVING TROUGH THAT RESULTED IN OUR COOLER
WEATHER IS FINALLY CLEARING THE AREA AS IT CONTINUES TO
TRANSLATE EAST FROM ONTARIO/QUEBEC INTO THE NORTHEAST.
CONCURRENTLY, AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO BUILD TOWARDS
THE GREAT PLAINS. THE EFFECTS OF THESE CHANGES WILL BEGIN TO BE
SHOWCASED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME, TEMPERATURES
COOL INTO THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH NEAR-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FOR SOME BY MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE BUILDING
RIDGE, SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN TO THE REGION. THIS HELPS PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
IT WILL BE A DRY SOUTH WIND THOUGH, AS A RESULT VERY HIGH FIRE
TO LOCALLY EXTREME FIRE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THAT BEING SAID, RED FLAG
CRITERIA IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED, BUT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES ON TUESDAY AS
80S RETURN TO THE AREA. LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL MOISTURE IS
ANTICIPATED, SO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER REMAINS, THOUGH LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD LIMIT THESE CONCERNS. OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. AS A LARGE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE GREAT PLAINS, STRONG LEE TROUGHING
WILL COMMENCE. WHILE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO
THE REGION, IT REMAINS WARM, RELATIVELY DRY, AND WINDY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. NEAR WIND-ADVISORY LEVEL SOUTHERLY
WINDS MAY DEVELOP AND SUPPORT CONTINUE VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER.
INCREASING MOISTURE RETURN MAY HELP LIMIT THIS THREAT THOUGH.
THURSDAY MARKS THE ANTICIPATED RETURN OF ACTIVE WEATHER. AS A
LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS OUT INTO THE GREAT PLAINS, IT
QUICKLY LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL COINCIDE WITH THIS FEATURE WITH A
COLD FRONT AND/OR DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO OUR AREA.
LATEST FORECAST MODEL TRENDS HAS THIS FRONT BISECTING THE AREA
NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WARM, DRY, AND
WINDY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY SUPPORT VERY HIGH TO
POTENTIALLY EXTREME FIRE DANGER. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A WARM,
MOIST ENVIRONMENT MAY POTENTIALLY BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
WEATHER. AT THIS TIME THERE IS A LOW (15%) CHANCE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST
IOWA. THE COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY, BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER BACK INTO THE
FORECAST. WHILE THE COOLER WEATHER MAY CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND, ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES. OVERALL, EARLY INDICATIONS
ARE FOR WESTERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGHING HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AND POTENTIALLY LASTING INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. IN THIS
EVENT, EXPECT AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
GREAT PLAINS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT MON APR 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT WINDS
TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AFTER SUNRISE TO AROUND 10-15KTS.
SOME LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 04Z MONDAY EVENING.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CHEHAK
AVIATION...ANW
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