114
FXUS63 KOAX 210227
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
927 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER WARM DAY WILL BRING HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER BACK
AGAIN ON TUESDAY, MAINLY TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
(50-70%). THERE IS A LOW (15%) CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS FOR
PORTIONS OF AREA THURSDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH MORE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS (15-25%) SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 927 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
WEATHER IS FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE CENTRAL US THIS EVENING DUE
TO A DOMINANT RIDGING PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS.
SATELLITE SHOWS A FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. TEMPERATURES WARMED UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S TODAY, WITH TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING STILL LINGERING IN
THE LOW-TO-MID 70S AS OF 9 PM.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION HAS CREATED A LOW-LEVEL JET WITH INCREASED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WE'LL SEE WINDS ONLY STRENGTHEN, JUST OFF THE SURFACE AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. MODELS SHOW A 45-55KT LLJ ACROSS
OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. THOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
ALOFT, WE WILL STILL SEE BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT IN
EARLY TUESDAY, PUSHING THE LLJ OFF TO THE EAST, BUT STALLING
ACROSS OUR AREA. WHILE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE NORTH AND SOUTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE (MID 80S FOR HIGHS), WE
WILL SEE A DIFFERENCE IN MOISTURE. WE'LL SEE DRIER AIR SIMILAR
TO WHAT WE SAW TODAY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHILE HUMIDITY WILL
BE ABOUT 20% HIGHER ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND FAR SOUTHWEST
IOWA. HUMIDITY WILL BE CRITICALLY LOW ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA, BUT WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT NORTH OF THE FRONT KEEPING
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM BECOMING EXTREME.
ANOTHER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY, AMPLIFYING
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. WITH THIS, WE'LL SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS HELPING TO DAMPEN AFTERNOON HIGHS A BIT, ONLY
REACHING INTO THE LOW 80S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST NE AND
SOUTHWEST IA, WHILE CLEARER AREAS TO THE NORTH MAY APPROACH 90.
OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES INTO THE DAKOTAS. WITH THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM
MAINLY TO OUR NORTH, THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST
IOWA (30-40%). WE WILL STILL SEE LOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE REST
OF OUR AREA (15-25%).
BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS ARRIVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THIS
COLD FRONT WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN OUR SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. FASTER SOLUTIONS CLEAR OUR AREA
BY MID-TO-LATE MORNING, PUTTING THE SEVERE STORM THREAT MORE
OVER CENTRAL IOWA. SLOWER SOLUTIONS KEEP US IN THE WARM SECTOR
FOR LONGER AND DEVELOP A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH ALL SEVERE WEATHER TYPES ON THE TABLE.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER KEEPS THIS PERIOD HIGHLIGHTED WITH A
15% SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL, LIKELY CHANGING TO A MARGINAL OR
SLIGHT RISK AS WE TRANSITION INTO DAY 3 LATER TONIGHT.
COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS A CANADIAN AIR
MASS SINKS SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
HIGHS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WILL DROP INTO THE 60S ON FRIDAY
AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A SECOND LOBE OF
VORTICITY MOVING THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND COULD BRING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, WITH A FEW SNOWFLAKES
POSSIBLY MIXING IN OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA EARLY SUNDAY. WE
DON'T EXPECT TO BE COLD ENOUGH AS OF NOW FOR ANYTHING TO
ACCUMULATE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER SCATTERED CIGS
AROUND FL250, CLEARING OVERNIGHT. PRIMARY CONCERN IS WIND AND
WIND SHEAR WITH LLWS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
RAMP UP WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE AROUND 1500-2000 FT TO
48-53KT WHICH WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST,
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY TOWARD 10-12Z. THESE STRONG WINDS OFF THE
SURFACE WILL RELAX TOWARD 10-12Z WITH SURFACE WINDS ALSO
WEAKENING AND BECOMING MORE WESTERLY. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT
SETTING UP ACROSS THE AREA WILL SHIFT WINDS AT KOFK TO EASTERLY
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, WHILE WINDS AT KOMA BECOME
MOSTLY VARIABLE ALONG THE FRONT, AND WINDS AT KLNK TURN SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...MCCOY
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